AppraisrAppraisr
Moonbirds

Moonbirds

9,999 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Moonbirds model?

Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).

Median accuracy
88.8%
Mean accuracy
81.5%
Within ±5%
19%
Within ±10%
45%
Within ±20%
70%
Bias
+7.8%

Weekly median accuracy

Hold-out accuracy by week

Error distribution

Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)

Recent sales vs model

The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date

ItemDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#3336Jun 17, 20260.660Ξ0.731Ξ-9.8%90.2%
#9153Jun 17, 20260.698Ξ0.680Ξ+2.6%97.4%
#2492Jun 17, 20260.698Ξ0.683Ξ+2.2%97.8%
#3233Jun 16, 20260.668Ξ0.684Ξ-2.4%97.6%
#3270Jun 16, 20260.667Ξ0.697Ξ-4.2%95.8%
#977Jun 16, 20260.750Ξ0.689Ξ+8.8%91.2%
#3575Jun 16, 20260.680Ξ0.637Ξ+6.7%93.3%
#8770Jun 16, 20260.679Ξ0.698Ξ-2.7%97.3%
#229Jun 16, 20260.750Ξ0.669Ξ+12.1%87.9%
#5252Jun 15, 20260.680Ξ0.627Ξ+8.5%91.5%
#5191Jun 15, 20260.679Ξ0.650Ξ+4.5%95.5%
#229Jun 15, 20260.679Ξ0.667Ξ+1.7%98.3%
#229Jun 15, 20260.651Ξ0.667Ξ-2.5%97.6%
#6421Jun 15, 20260.670Ξ0.701Ξ-4.5%95.5%
#891Jun 15, 20260.660Ξ0.651Ξ+1.3%98.7%
#2453Jun 15, 20260.670Ξ0.655Ξ+2.2%97.8%
#9223Jun 15, 20260.660Ξ0.624Ξ+5.8%94.2%
#1354Jun 15, 20260.660Ξ0.666Ξ-0.9%99.1%
#5210Jun 15, 20260.660Ξ0.658Ξ+0.3%99.7%
#5191Jun 15, 20260.650Ξ0.649Ξ+0.1%99.9%
#6703Jun 15, 20260.665Ξ0.632Ξ+5.3%94.7%
#8910Jun 15, 20260.670Ξ0.653Ξ+2.6%97.4%
#1585Jun 15, 20260.665Ξ0.648Ξ+2.6%97.4%
#1975Jun 15, 20260.650Ξ0.655Ξ-0.8%99.2%
#4654Jun 15, 20260.665Ξ0.647Ξ+2.8%97.2%
#6212Jun 15, 20260.650Ξ0.669Ξ-2.8%97.2%
#1339Jun 15, 20260.650Ξ0.702Ξ-7.4%92.6%
#5191Jun 15, 20260.643Ξ0.648Ξ-0.8%99.2%
#891Jun 14, 20260.641Ξ0.650Ξ-1.4%98.6%
#6009Jun 14, 20260.665Ξ0.686Ξ-3.1%96.9%
#4654Jun 14, 20260.645Ξ0.644Ξ+0.2%99.8%
#1339Jun 14, 20260.646Ξ0.699Ξ-7.6%92.4%
#2492Jun 14, 20260.652Ξ0.675Ξ-3.4%96.6%
#1585Jun 13, 20260.651Ξ0.644Ξ+1.1%98.9%
#6009Jun 13, 20260.652Ξ0.684Ξ-4.6%95.4%
#1864Jun 12, 20260.680Ξ0.642Ξ+5.9%94.1%
#6235Jun 12, 20260.680Ξ0.633Ξ+7.4%92.6%
#6235Jun 12, 20260.653Ξ0.633Ξ+3.2%96.9%
#6569Jun 12, 20260.680Ξ0.685Ξ-0.7%99.3%
#4393Jun 11, 20260.700Ξ0.638Ξ+9.7%90.3%

Method details on the methodology page.