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CryptoPunks V1

CryptoPunks V1

5,141 items · Body types

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the CryptoPunks V1 model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
89.4%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
86.0%
Within ±5%
28%
Within ±10%
48%
Within ±20%
76%
Bias
+0.4%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor131589.9%50%-0.1%
middle9876.7%24%+8.3%
grail2884.6%32%-6.0%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemBodyTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#4014Malefloor · highNov 3, 20261.749Ξ1.664Ξ-4.9%95.1%
#6646Malefloor · highNov 1, 20261.590Ξ1.756Ξ+10.4%89.6%
#1241Malefloor · highNov 1, 20261.899Ξ1.825Ξ-3.9%96.1%
#9088Malefloor · highNov 1, 20261.590Ξ1.635Ξ+2.8%97.2%
#9061Malefloor · highNov 1, 20261.590Ξ1.577Ξ-0.8%99.2%
#4791Malefloor · highNov 1, 20261.610Ξ1.664Ξ+3.4%96.7%
#1664Femalefloor · highNov 1, 20261.450Ξ1.597Ξ+10.1%89.9%
#7277Malefloor · highNov 1, 20261.900Ξ1.960Ξ+3.2%96.8%
#8313Malefloor · highOct 31, 20262.000Ξ1.864Ξ-6.8%93.2%
#8313Malemiddle · highOct 31, 20261.590Ξ2.741Ξ+72.4%27.6%
#1814Malefloor · highOct 31, 20262.000Ξ1.927Ξ-3.7%96.4%
#2259Malemiddle · highOct 30, 20262.200Ξ2.301Ξ+4.6%95.4%
#3467Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.870Ξ2.139Ξ+14.4%85.6%
#2679Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.699Ξ1.656Ξ-2.5%97.5%
#4843Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.640Ξ1.528Ξ-6.8%93.2%
#3290Femalefloor · highOct 29, 20261.400Ξ1.564Ξ+11.7%88.3%
#2679Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.660Ξ1.742Ξ+4.9%95.1%
#4843Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.450Ξ1.750Ξ+20.7%79.3%
#1823Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.500Ξ1.728Ξ+15.2%84.8%
#4791Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.600Ξ1.725Ξ+7.8%92.2%
#6021Femalefloor · highOct 29, 20261.480Ξ1.747Ξ+18.0%82.0%
#6534Femalefloor · highOct 29, 20261.460Ξ1.712Ξ+17.3%82.7%
#6078Femalefloor · highOct 29, 20261.470Ξ1.666Ξ+13.3%86.7%
#9690Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.620Ξ1.921Ξ+18.6%81.4%
#6956Malefloor · highOct 29, 20261.740Ξ1.752Ξ+0.7%99.3%
#5867Malefloor · highOct 27, 20262.000Ξ2.087Ξ+4.4%95.7%
#1896Malefloor · highOct 26, 20262.199Ξ1.839Ξ-16.4%83.6%
#1896Malefloor · highOct 25, 20261.800Ξ2.210Ξ+22.8%77.2%
#1241Malefloor · highOct 25, 20261.880Ξ1.686Ξ-10.3%89.7%
#9037Femalefloor · highOct 24, 20261.850Ξ1.768Ξ-4.4%95.6%
#4791Malefloor · highOct 24, 20261.660Ξ1.994Ξ+20.1%79.9%
#4014Malefloor · highOct 24, 20261.740Ξ1.687Ξ-3.1%97.0%
#4014Malefloor · highOct 23, 20261.640Ξ1.756Ξ+7.1%92.9%
#9037Femalefloor · highOct 20, 20261.749Ξ1.576Ξ-9.9%90.1%
#4721Femalefloor · highOct 19, 20261.500Ξ1.600Ξ+6.7%93.3%
#9037Femalefloor · highOct 19, 20261.510Ξ1.777Ξ+17.7%82.3%
#1241Malefloor · highOct 19, 20261.560Ξ1.980Ξ+26.9%73.1%
#4308Malefloor · highOct 19, 20261.850Ξ1.736Ξ-6.2%93.8%
#5235Malemiddle · highOct 18, 20263.020Ξ3.339Ξ+10.6%89.4%
#2822Femalefloor · highOct 18, 20261.700Ξ1.780Ξ+4.7%95.3%

Model v1-punks-1793709983-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 11/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.