Accuracy
How accurate is the CryptoPunks V1 model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
77.5%
Mean accuracy
67.1%
Within ±5%
9%
Within ±10%
23%
Within ±20%
44%
Bias
+10.2%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Body | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3686 | Female | Jun 16, 2026 | 3.500Ξ | 3.124Ξ | +12.0% | 88.0% |
| #7213 | Male | Jun 16, 2026 | 9.990Ξ | 9.147Ξ | +9.2% | 90.8% |
| #4534 | Male | Jun 16, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 3.200Ξ | -6.2% | 93.8% |
| #4739 | Male | Jun 14, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 2.932Ξ | +2.3% | 97.7% |
| #1664 | Female | Jun 14, 2026 | 2.460Ξ | 2.538Ξ | -3.1% | 96.9% |
| #8512 | Female | Jun 13, 2026 | 2.670Ξ | 2.426Ξ | +10.1% | 89.9% |
| #7810 | Female | Jun 11, 2026 | 2.889Ξ | 2.352Ξ | +22.9% | 77.1% |
| #2858 | Female | Jun 11, 2026 | 2.210Ξ | 2.353Ξ | -6.1% | 93.9% |
| #5295 | Female | Jun 11, 2026 | 3.500Ξ | 2.805Ξ | +24.8% | 75.2% |
| #7631 | Female | Jun 10, 2026 | 2.690Ξ | 2.423Ξ | +11.0% | 89.0% |
| #1139 | Female | Jun 10, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 2.871Ξ | +4.5% | 95.5% |
| #1664 | Female | Jun 10, 2026 | 2.349Ξ | 2.573Ξ | -8.7% | 91.3% |
| #2858 | Female | Jun 10, 2026 | 2.150Ξ | 2.355Ξ | -8.7% | 91.3% |
| #8428 | Female | Jun 9, 2026 | 2.190Ξ | 2.557Ξ | -14.3% | 85.7% |
| #7844 | Male | Jun 9, 2026 | 9.500Ξ | 7.137Ξ | +33.1% | 66.9% |
| #7062 | Male | Jun 9, 2026 | 2.230Ξ | 3.007Ξ | -25.8% | 74.2% |
| #7308 | Male | Jun 9, 2026 | 2.810Ξ | 3.111Ξ | -9.7% | 90.3% |
| #4798 | Female | Jun 8, 2026 | 2.270Ξ | 3.420Ξ | -33.6% | 66.4% |
| #2858 | Female | Jun 8, 2026 | 2.360Ξ | 2.363Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #5403 | Male | Jun 8, 2026 | 2.340Ξ | 2.741Ξ | -14.6% | 85.4% |
| #5289 | Male | Jun 8, 2026 | 7.500Ξ | 8.777Ξ | -14.6% | 85.5% |
| #3532 | Male | Jun 7, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 2.997Ξ | +0.1% | 99.9% |
| #3532 | Male | Jun 7, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 2.997Ξ | +0.1% | 99.9% |
| #4707 | Male | Jun 7, 2026 | 3.110Ξ | 3.557Ξ | -12.6% | 87.4% |
| #1005 | Male | Jun 7, 2026 | 5.000Ξ | 3.505Ξ | +42.7% | 57.4% |
| #5491 | Male | Jun 7, 2026 | 2.910Ξ | 3.538Ξ | -17.8% | 82.2% |
| #7012 | Male | Jun 6, 2026 | 5.000Ξ | 3.676Ξ | +36.0% | 64.0% |
| #7721 | Male | Jun 5, 2026 | 3.300Ξ | 3.593Ξ | -8.2% | 91.8% |
| #1390 | Female | Jun 5, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 2.640Ξ | +13.7% | 86.4% |
| #2858 | Female | Jun 5, 2026 | 2.720Ξ | 2.392Ξ | +13.7% | 86.3% |
| #2858 | Female | Jun 5, 2026 | 2.490Ξ | 2.392Ξ | +4.1% | 95.9% |
| #7631 | Female | Jun 5, 2026 | 2.490Ξ | 2.463Ξ | +1.1% | 98.9% |
| #5487 | Male | Jun 5, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 5.174Ξ | +16.0% | 84.0% |
| #1167 | Male | Jun 5, 2026 | 4.000Ξ | 3.583Ξ | +11.6% | 88.4% |
| #3293 | Female | Jun 5, 2026 | 3.500Ξ | 3.350Ξ | +4.5% | 95.5% |
| #9423 | Female | Jun 5, 2026 | 3.697Ξ | 2.970Ξ | +24.5% | 75.5% |
| #8512 | Female | Jun 4, 2026 | 2.540Ξ | 2.484Ξ | +2.3% | 97.7% |
| #7631 | Female | Jun 4, 2026 | 2.530Ξ | 2.469Ξ | +2.5% | 97.6% |
| #9423 | Female | Jun 4, 2026 | 3.000Ξ | 2.979Ξ | +0.7% | 99.3% |
| #8981 | Male | Jun 4, 2026 | 6.750Ξ | 4.893Ξ | +38.0% | 62.0% |
Method details on the methodology page.