Accuracy
How accurate is the Quirkies model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
93.0%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
90.3%
Within ±5%
36%
Within ±10%
67%
Within ±20%
90%
Bias
-1.3%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1161 | 93.1% | 68% | -1.1% |
| middle | 15 | 59.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| grail | 1 | 31.6% | 0% | -68.4% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #706 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 1.044Ξ | 1.096Ξ | +5.0% | 95.0% |
| #394 | floor · medium | Sep 18, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 1.021Ξ | -1.8% | 98.2% |
| #3553 | floor · medium | Sep 18, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 1.003Ξ | -3.6% | 96.4% |
| #623 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 0.952Ξ | -8.5% | 91.5% |
| #623 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 0.905Ξ | 1.020Ξ | +12.7% | 87.3% |
| #1823 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 0.980Ξ | 1.096Ξ | +11.8% | 88.2% |
| #4746 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 1.042Ξ | 1.062Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #837 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 1.300Ξ | 1.167Ξ | -10.2% | 89.8% |
| #2387 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 1.298Ξ | 1.261Ξ | -2.9% | 97.2% |
| #3985 | floor · medium | Sep 13, 2026 | 0.911Ξ | 1.059Ξ | +16.3% | 83.8% |
| #3669 | floor · high | Sep 10, 2026 | 1.066Ξ | 1.030Ξ | -3.4% | 96.6% |
| #2134 | floor · high | Sep 10, 2026 | 1.066Ξ | 0.982Ξ | -7.9% | 92.1% |
| #282 | floor · medium | Sep 10, 2026 | 1.087Ξ | 0.966Ξ | -11.1% | 88.9% |
| #1839 | floor · high | Sep 10, 2026 | 1.075Ξ | 1.073Ξ | -0.2% | 99.8% |
| #1911 | floor · medium | Sep 9, 2026 | 1.069Ξ | 0.980Ξ | -8.3% | 91.7% |
| #501 | floor · high | Sep 9, 2026 | 1.030Ξ | 0.942Ξ | -8.5% | 91.5% |
| #1234 | floor · high | Sep 9, 2026 | 1.030Ξ | 0.941Ξ | -8.6% | 91.4% |
| #3915 | floor · high | Sep 9, 2026 | 0.990Ξ | 1.029Ξ | +3.9% | 96.1% |
| #153 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 1.200Ξ | 1.147Ξ | -4.4% | 95.6% |
| #4444 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 1.019Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #4041 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 0.991Ξ | -0.9% | 99.1% |
| #4287 | floor · medium | Sep 8, 2026 | 0.990Ξ | 0.990Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #1234 | floor · high | Sep 7, 2026 | 0.890Ξ | 0.997Ξ | +12.0% | 88.0% |
| #4273 | floor · high | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.060Ξ | 0.979Ξ | -7.6% | 92.4% |
| #2694 | floor · medium | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.051Ξ | 0.955Ξ | -9.1% | 90.9% |
| #31 | floor · high | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.050Ξ | 0.965Ξ | -8.1% | 91.9% |
| #3487 | floor · medium | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.050Ξ | 0.978Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #277 | floor · high | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.050Ξ | 0.958Ξ | -8.8% | 91.2% |
| #3183 | floor · high | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.050Ξ | 0.989Ξ | -5.8% | 94.2% |
| #4239 | floor · medium | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 0.975Ξ | -6.3% | 93.8% |
| #3686 | floor · high | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 0.903Ξ | -9.7% | 90.3% |
| #2187 | floor · medium | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.040Ξ | 0.960Ξ | -7.7% | 92.3% |
| #480 | floor · high | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 0.970Ξ | -3.0% | 97.0% |
| #945 | floor · medium | Sep 5, 2026 | 1.046Ξ | 0.964Ξ | -7.8% | 92.2% |
| #501 | floor · medium | Sep 4, 2026 | 0.850Ξ | 0.982Ξ | +15.5% | 84.5% |
| #3686 | floor · medium | Sep 4, 2026 | 0.850Ξ | 0.962Ξ | +13.2% | 86.8% |
| #3471 | floor · high | Sep 4, 2026 | 1.002Ξ | 0.892Ξ | -11.0% | 89.0% |
| #316 | floor · high | Sep 4, 2026 | 1.030Ξ | 0.969Ξ | -5.9% | 94.1% |
| #3851 | floor · medium | Sep 4, 2026 | 1.002Ξ | 0.927Ξ | -7.5% | 92.5% |
| #4164 | floor · high | Sep 4, 2026 | 1.047Ξ | 0.966Ξ | -7.7% | 92.3% |
Model quirkies-1787518199-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/23/2026. Method details on the methodology page.