Accuracy
How accurate is the Pudgy Penguins model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
96.2%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
94.8%
Within ±5%
63%
Within ±10%
89%
Within ±20%
98%
Bias
-0.4%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1438 | 96.3% | 90% | -0.3% |
| middle | 7 | 79.4% | 0% | -9.6% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5436 | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 3.500Ξ | 3.484Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #1291 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 3.388Ξ | 3.493Ξ | +3.1% | 96.9% |
| #3253 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 3.382Ξ | 3.381Ξ | -0.0% | 100.0% |
| #4339 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 3.820Ξ | 3.589Ξ | -6.1% | 94.0% |
| #7398 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 3.300Ξ | 3.351Ξ | +1.6% | 98.5% |
| #3864 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 3.347Ξ | 3.368Ξ | +0.6% | 99.4% |
| #4740 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 3.350Ξ | 3.405Ξ | +1.6% | 98.4% |
| #7398 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 3.260Ξ | 3.411Ξ | +4.6% | 95.4% |
| #7445 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 3.270Ξ | 3.751Ξ | +14.7% | 85.3% |
| #7845 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 3.410Ξ | 3.470Ξ | +1.8% | 98.2% |
| #7588 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 3.320Ξ | 3.384Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #2632 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.260Ξ | 3.384Ξ | +3.8% | 96.2% |
| #3637 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.590Ξ | 3.311Ξ | -7.8% | 92.2% |
| #5716 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.340Ξ | 3.582Ξ | +7.3% | 92.8% |
| #1537 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.280Ξ | 3.404Ξ | +3.8% | 96.2% |
| #1672 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.261Ξ | 3.341Ξ | +2.5% | 97.6% |
| #8304 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.240Ξ | 3.427Ξ | +5.8% | 94.2% |
| #5221 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 3.240Ξ | 3.667Ξ | +13.2% | 86.8% |
| #7332 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.250Ξ | 3.385Ξ | +4.2% | 95.9% |
| #428 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.383Ξ | 3.446Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #1349 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.300Ξ | 3.455Ξ | +4.7% | 95.3% |
| #428 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.340Ξ | 3.638Ξ | +8.9% | 91.1% |
| #221 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.260Ξ | 3.486Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #1672 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.280Ξ | 3.628Ξ | +10.6% | 89.4% |
| #6169 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.370Ξ | 3.491Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #2354 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.390Ξ | 3.500Ξ | +3.3% | 96.8% |
| #7100 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.360Ξ | 3.574Ξ | +6.4% | 93.6% |
| #1482 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.350Ξ | 3.530Ξ | +5.4% | 94.6% |
| #7384 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 3.550Ξ | 3.382Ξ | -4.7% | 95.3% |
| #4028 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.340Ξ | 3.474Ξ | +4.0% | 96.0% |
| #7332 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.310Ξ | 3.566Ξ | +7.7% | 92.3% |
| #4541 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.445Ξ | 3.381Ξ | -1.9% | 98.1% |
| #6110 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.420Ξ | 3.426Ξ | +0.2% | 99.8% |
| #7384 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.320Ξ | 3.549Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #4541 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.320Ξ | 3.534Ξ | +6.5% | 93.6% |
| #1351 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 4.077Ξ | 3.697Ξ | -9.3% | 90.7% |
| #2438 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 4.390Ξ | 3.838Ξ | -12.6% | 87.4% |
| #8506 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.340Ξ | 3.546Ξ | +6.2% | 93.8% |
| #6110 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.360Ξ | 3.601Ξ | +7.2% | 92.8% |
| #2409 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 3.380Ξ | 3.639Ξ | +7.7% | 92.3% |
Model pudgy-penguins-1789797407-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 9/19/2026. Method details on the methodology page.