AppraisrAppraisr
Pudgy Penguins

Pudgy Penguins

8,888 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Pudgy Penguins model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
96.5%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
94.7%
Within ±5%
64%
Within ±10%
88%
Within ±20%
97%
Bias
-1.0%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor154896.6%89%-0.9%
middle1285.8%17%-6.8%
grail134.6%0%-65.4%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#6501floor · highNov 3, 20262.319Ξ2.278Ξ-1.8%98.2%
#207floor · highNov 3, 20262.170Ξ2.381Ξ+9.7%90.3%
#6203floor · highNov 3, 20262.330Ξ2.384Ξ+2.3%97.7%
#3326floor · highNov 2, 20262.340Ξ2.365Ξ+1.1%98.9%
#2453floor · highNov 2, 20262.200Ξ2.434Ξ+10.6%89.4%
#8738floor · highNov 2, 20262.200Ξ2.430Ξ+10.5%89.6%
#2085floor · highNov 2, 20262.220Ξ2.444Ξ+10.1%89.9%
#3920floor · highNov 2, 20262.300Ξ2.494Ξ+8.4%91.6%
#6501floor · highNov 2, 20262.370Ξ2.671Ξ+12.7%87.3%
#3351floor · highNov 2, 20262.380Ξ2.497Ξ+4.9%95.1%
#1217floor · highNov 1, 20262.360Ξ2.549Ξ+8.0%92.0%
#4363floor · highNov 1, 20262.410Ξ2.444Ξ+1.4%98.6%
#4363floor · highNov 1, 20262.420Ξ2.500Ξ+3.3%96.7%
#3326floor · highNov 1, 20262.430Ξ2.688Ξ+10.6%89.4%
#7405floor · highNov 1, 20262.480Ξ2.564Ξ+3.4%96.6%
#207floor · highNov 1, 20262.480Ξ2.443Ξ-1.5%98.5%
#934floor · highNov 1, 20262.440Ξ2.475Ξ+1.4%98.6%
#4795floor · highOct 31, 20262.530Ξ2.484Ξ-1.8%98.2%
#4795floor · highOct 31, 20262.440Ξ2.549Ξ+4.5%95.5%
#7311floor · highOct 30, 20262.480Ξ2.443Ξ-1.5%98.5%
#7574floor · highOct 30, 20262.480Ξ2.475Ξ-0.2%99.8%
#1547floor · highOct 30, 20262.490Ξ2.508Ξ+0.7%99.3%
#3790floor · highOct 30, 20262.790Ξ2.557Ξ-8.4%91.7%
#5348floor · highOct 30, 20262.550Ξ2.498Ξ-2.0%98.0%
#4004floor · highOct 30, 20262.490Ξ2.400Ξ-3.6%96.4%
#7311floor · highOct 30, 20262.390Ξ2.566Ξ+7.4%92.6%
#2937floor · highOct 30, 20262.500Ξ2.512Ξ+0.5%99.5%
#3686floor · highOct 30, 20262.500Ξ2.450Ξ-2.0%98.0%
#6054floor · highOct 30, 20262.500Ξ2.500Ξ0.0%100.0%
#3790floor · highOct 30, 20262.550Ξ2.696Ξ+5.7%94.3%
#3134floor · highOct 30, 20262.650Ξ2.651Ξ+0.0%100.0%
#7698floor · highOct 29, 20262.510Ξ2.504Ξ-0.2%99.8%
#2674floor · highOct 29, 20262.470Ξ2.425Ξ-1.8%98.2%
#2547floor · highOct 29, 20262.550Ξ2.470Ξ-3.1%96.9%
#2674floor · highOct 29, 20262.390Ξ2.489Ξ+4.1%95.9%
#3652floor · highOct 28, 20262.690Ξ2.466Ξ-8.3%91.7%
#2547floor · highOct 27, 20262.470Ξ2.498Ξ+1.1%98.9%
#5773floor · highOct 27, 20262.500Ξ2.493Ξ-0.3%99.7%
#1604floor · highOct 27, 20262.540Ξ2.483Ξ-2.2%97.8%
#5245floor · highOct 27, 20262.780Ξ2.796Ξ+0.6%99.4%

Model pudgy-penguins-1793718479-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 11/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.