Accuracy
How accurate is the Pudgy Penguins model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
96.8%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
94.8%
Within ±5%
68%
Within ±10%
90%
Within ±20%
96%
Bias
-1.2%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1354 | 96.8% | 90% | -1.2% |
| middle | 5 | 79.3% | 0% | -15.7% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #171 | floor · high | Aug 3, 2026 | 3.900Ξ | 3.724Ξ | -4.5% | 95.5% |
| #4659 | floor · high | Aug 3, 2026 | 3.800Ξ | 3.806Ξ | +0.2% | 99.8% |
| #4161 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.949Ξ | 3.726Ξ | -5.7% | 94.4% |
| #5780 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.900Ξ | 3.785Ξ | -3.0% | 97.1% |
| #7908 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.850Ξ | 3.780Ξ | -1.8% | 98.2% |
| #3683 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.888Ξ | 3.861Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #2210 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.888Ξ | 3.677Ξ | -5.4% | 94.6% |
| #1106 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.888Ξ | 3.672Ξ | -5.6% | 94.4% |
| #8198 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.900Ξ | 3.719Ξ | -4.6% | 95.4% |
| #1923 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.940Ξ | 3.638Ξ | -7.7% | 92.3% |
| #3683 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.859Ξ | 3.780Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #1095 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.850Ξ | 3.825Ξ | -0.7% | 99.4% |
| #1095 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.785Ξ | 3.830Ξ | +1.2% | 98.8% |
| #2268 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.808Ξ | 3.790Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #4606 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.800Ξ | 3.751Ξ | -1.3% | 98.7% |
| #5783 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.798Ξ | 3.801Ξ | +0.1% | 99.9% |
| #4115 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.770Ξ | 3.693Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #1768 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.777Ξ | 3.788Ξ | +0.3% | 99.7% |
| #8120 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.770Ξ | 3.833Ξ | +1.7% | 98.3% |
| #5716 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.710Ξ | 3.854Ξ | +3.9% | 96.1% |
| #253 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.790Ξ | 3.731Ξ | -1.6% | 98.4% |
| #5755 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.740Ξ | 3.720Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #5280 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.640Ξ | 3.786Ξ | +4.0% | 96.0% |
| #5755 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.640Ξ | 3.698Ξ | +1.6% | 98.4% |
| #4006 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.670Ξ | 3.751Ξ | +2.2% | 97.8% |
| #253 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.680Ξ | 3.687Ξ | +0.2% | 99.8% |
| #2746 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 3.780Ξ | 3.773Ξ | -0.2% | 99.8% |
| #153 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.799Ξ | 3.863Ξ | +1.7% | 98.3% |
| #1003 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.900Ξ | 3.817Ξ | -2.1% | 97.9% |
| #4292 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.950Ξ | 3.761Ξ | -4.8% | 95.2% |
| #2453 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.770Ξ | 3.797Ξ | +0.7% | 99.3% |
| #8568 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.760Ξ | 3.801Ξ | +1.1% | 98.9% |
| #4028 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.749Ξ | 3.678Ξ | -1.9% | 98.1% |
| #6121 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.749Ξ | 3.747Ξ | -0.1% | 100.0% |
| #422 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.739Ξ | 3.769Ξ | +0.8% | 99.2% |
| #3253 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.735Ξ | 3.672Ξ | -1.7% | 98.3% |
| #3968 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.736Ξ | 3.732Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #4028 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.630Ξ | 3.792Ξ | +4.5% | 95.5% |
| #3253 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.620Ξ | 3.751Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #5765 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 3.700Ξ | 3.709Ξ | +0.3% | 99.8% |
Model pudgy-penguins-1785731339-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.