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Nakamigos

Nakamigos

19,928 items · Type types

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Nakamigos model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
92.3%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
88.5%
Within ±5%
37%
Within ±10%
58%
Within ±20%
81%
Bias
-4.7%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor208492.5%59%-5.0%
middle12290.9%52%+2.4%
grail2572.2%16%-7.9%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemTypeTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#16495Human Mochafloor · highAug 3, 20260.101Ξ0.104Ξ+3.0%97.0%
#11925Human Lattefloor · lowAug 3, 20260.102Ξ0.130Ξ+27.5%72.6%
#2172Human Bobafloor · highAug 3, 20260.106Ξ0.103Ξ-2.8%97.2%
#4627Human Bobafloor · highAug 3, 20260.106Ξ0.101Ξ-4.7%95.3%
#5717Human Coffeefloor · lowAug 3, 20260.107Ξ0.107Ξ0.0%100.0%
#10653Human Mochafloor · highAug 3, 20260.110Ξ0.103Ξ-6.4%93.6%
#11797Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.111Ξ0.104Ξ-6.3%93.7%
#19551Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.105Ξ0.128Ξ+22.3%77.8%
#11656Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.106Ξ0.101Ξ-4.8%95.2%
#11062Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.105Ξ0.101Ξ-3.7%96.3%
#4863Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.105Ξ0.101Ξ-3.5%96.5%
#4863Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.096Ξ0.105Ξ+8.9%91.1%
#6049Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.102Ξ0.098Ξ-3.9%96.1%
#9822Human Lattefloor · insufficientAug 2, 20260.105Ξ0.099Ξ-5.4%94.6%
#15267Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.102Ξ0.143Ξ+40.2%59.8%
#13357Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.102Ξ0.099Ξ-2.9%97.1%
#12741Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.102Ξ0.100Ξ-2.0%98.0%
#5395Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.095Ξ0.120Ξ+26.2%73.8%
#13357Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.095Ξ0.111Ξ+16.6%83.4%
#11458Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.095Ξ0.106Ξ+11.3%88.7%
#12304Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.098Ξ0.127Ξ+29.2%70.8%
#3653Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.102Ξ0.139Ξ+36.3%63.7%
#2035Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.100Ξ0.102Ξ+2.1%97.9%
#16127Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.100Ξ0.111Ξ+11.1%88.9%
#3456Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.100Ξ0.099Ξ-1.0%99.0%
#1153Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.100Ξ0.104Ξ+4.0%96.0%
#1920Human Pumpkin Spicefloor · highAug 2, 20260.101Ξ0.124Ξ+22.8%77.2%
#11797Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.103Ξ0.108Ξ+4.9%95.2%
#15743Human Coffeefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.103Ξ0.101Ξ-1.9%98.1%
#8994Human Lattefloor · insufficientAug 2, 20260.105Ξ0.104Ξ-1.0%99.1%
#13229Human Coffeefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.104Ξ0.109Ξ+4.8%95.2%
#15519Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.106Ξ0.116Ξ+9.5%90.5%
#18978Human Pumpkin Spicefloor · highAug 2, 20260.106Ξ0.102Ξ-3.8%96.2%
#17911Human Mochafloor · highAug 2, 20260.109Ξ0.129Ξ+18.4%81.7%
#18749Human Pumpkin Spicefloor · highAug 2, 20260.113Ξ0.106Ξ-6.1%93.9%
#4302Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.105Ξ0.108Ξ+2.9%97.1%
#15376Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.109Ξ0.108Ξ-0.9%99.1%
#8820Human Pumpkin Spicefloor · highAug 2, 20260.117Ξ0.103Ξ-12.3%87.7%
#5447Human Lattefloor · lowAug 2, 20260.109Ξ0.107Ξ-1.8%98.2%
#5476Human Bobafloor · highAug 2, 20260.128Ξ0.104Ξ-18.8%81.3%

Model nakamigos-1785734855-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.