Accuracy
How accurate is the Nakamigos model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
91.7%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
87.6%
Within ±5%
33%
Within ±10%
56%
Within ±20%
80%
Bias
-3.3%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2113 | 92.0% | 57% | -3.8% |
| middle | 188 | 88.2% | 46% | +1.9% |
| grail | 24 | 74.5% | 21% | -2.2% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Type | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #13291 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.105Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #15763 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.110Ξ | 0.110Ξ | +0.1% | 99.9% |
| #6882 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.110Ξ | +6.8% | 93.2% |
| #9703 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.099Ξ | -3.9% | 96.1% |
| #8817 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.095Ξ | -7.8% | 92.2% |
| #17165 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.102Ξ | -1.0% | 99.0% |
| #15199 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.105Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #11985 | Human Mocha | floor · low | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.098Ξ | -4.9% | 95.2% |
| #4858 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · insufficient | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.098Ξ | -4.9% | 95.2% |
| #10564 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.099Ξ | -3.9% | 96.1% |
| #13579 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.094Ξ | -8.7% | 91.3% |
| #9608 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.098Ξ | -4.9% | 95.2% |
| #16166 | Human Mocha | floor · low | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.088Ξ | -14.6% | 85.4% |
| #1537 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.094Ξ | -8.7% | 91.3% |
| #10858 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.101Ξ | 0.088Ξ | -12.9% | 87.1% |
| #15763 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.102Ξ | 0.094Ξ | -7.8% | 92.2% |
| #2172 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.106Ξ | 0.090Ξ | -14.9% | 85.1% |
| #13305 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · insufficient | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.106Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -20.8% | 79.3% |
| #13484 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.106Ξ | 0.098Ξ | -7.3% | 92.7% |
| #19750 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.106Ξ | 0.088Ξ | -16.8% | 83.2% |
| #9730 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.106Ξ | 0.099Ξ | -6.5% | 93.5% |
| #11857 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.106Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -20.6% | 79.4% |
| #13484 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.097Ξ | 0.085Ξ | -12.6% | 87.4% |
| #1794 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.098Ξ | 0.092Ξ | -6.1% | 93.9% |
| #9730 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.098Ξ | 0.096Ξ | -1.7% | 98.3% |
| #5941 | Snowman | grail · insufficient | Sep 14, 2026 | 0.181Ξ | 0.269Ξ | +48.6% | 51.4% |
| #4809 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Sep 13, 2026 | 0.083Ξ | 0.094Ξ | +12.9% | 87.2% |
| #4864 | Bot | floor · insufficient | Sep 13, 2026 | 0.112Ξ | 0.097Ξ | -13.4% | 86.6% |
| #11210 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Sep 13, 2026 | 0.085Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #8267 | Human Latte | middle · high | Sep 13, 2026 | 0.134Ξ | 0.133Ξ | -0.8% | 99.3% |
| #3889 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 13, 2026 | 0.103Ξ | 0.095Ξ | -8.0% | 92.0% |
| #15230 | Bot | floor · low | Sep 12, 2026 | 0.118Ξ | 0.111Ξ | -5.9% | 94.1% |
| #4455 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · insufficient | Sep 12, 2026 | 0.085Ξ | 0.083Ξ | -1.8% | 98.2% |
| #15230 | Bot | floor · insufficient | Sep 12, 2026 | 0.111Ξ | 0.096Ξ | -13.5% | 86.5% |
| #3857 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 11, 2026 | 0.094Ξ | 0.083Ξ | -11.4% | 88.6% |
| #12039 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 11, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.093Ξ | +5.6% | 94.4% |
| #15821 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Sep 11, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -7.3% | 92.7% |
| #12952 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 11, 2026 | 0.089Ξ | 0.094Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #12952 | Human Boba | floor · high | Sep 11, 2026 | 0.094Ξ | 0.085Ξ | -9.3% | 90.7% |
| #7332 | Human Latte | floor · high | Sep 11, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -4.1% | 95.9% |
Model nakamigos-1789797527-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 9/19/2026. Method details on the methodology page.