Accuracy
How accurate is the Nakamigos model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
92.4%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
87.9%
Within ±5%
35%
Within ±10%
59%
Within ±20%
81%
Bias
-3.4%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2234 | 92.8% | 60% | -3.4% |
| middle | 167 | 90.2% | 51% | -2.7% |
| grail | 21 | 81.8% | 5% | -6.8% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Type | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #17896 | Human Latte | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 0.083Ξ | 0.085Ξ | +2.0% | 98.0% |
| #528 | Human Latte | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 0.107Ξ | 0.093Ξ | -13.1% | 86.9% |
| #17416 | Human Latte | middle · high | Nov 3, 2026 | 0.140Ξ | 0.127Ξ | -9.3% | 90.7% |
| #4591 | Human Latte | floor · high | Nov 3, 2026 | 0.083Ξ | 0.084Ξ | +0.7% | 99.3% |
| #10811 | Human Pumpkin Spice | middle · insufficient | Nov 3, 2026 | 0.144Ξ | 0.126Ξ | -12.5% | 87.5% |
| #6398 | Human Latte | floor · high | Nov 3, 2026 | 0.083Ξ | 0.083Ξ | -0.2% | 99.8% |
| #6625 | Human Boba | floor · high | Nov 2, 2026 | 0.125Ξ | 0.090Ξ | -28.0% | 72.0% |
| #17670 | Human Latte | floor · high | Nov 1, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.085Ξ | -3.1% | 96.9% |
| #6232 | Human Pumpkin Spice | middle · insufficient | Nov 1, 2026 | 0.147Ξ | 0.126Ξ | -14.3% | 85.7% |
| #2462 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Nov 1, 2026 | 0.087Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -3.5% | 96.6% |
| #2341 | Human Mocha | floor · low | Nov 1, 2026 | 0.087Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -5.7% | 94.3% |
| #17607 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Nov 1, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.092Ξ | +4.7% | 95.3% |
| #16572 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.090Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -6.4% | 93.6% |
| #489 | Human Mocha | floor · insufficient | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.089Ξ | 0.085Ξ | -4.7% | 95.3% |
| #12304 | Human Mocha | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.092Ξ | 0.094Ξ | +2.1% | 97.9% |
| #5803 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.092Ξ | +4.2% | 95.8% |
| #5201 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -6.8% | 93.2% |
| #2197 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.090Ξ | +2.4% | 97.6% |
| #15760 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #8398 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #7273 | Human Boba | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #19838 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #11394 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.084Ξ | -4.4% | 95.6% |
| #6005 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.085Ξ | -3.5% | 96.6% |
| #2825 | Human Boba | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.090Ξ | 0.090Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #6078 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.082Ξ | -6.7% | 93.3% |
| #12688 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.085Ξ | -3.3% | 96.7% |
| #11423 | Human Boba | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.085Ξ | 0.081Ξ | -4.3% | 95.7% |
| #380 | Human Mocha | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.085Ξ | 0.081Ξ | -4.4% | 95.7% |
| #8398 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.079Ξ | 0.082Ξ | +4.1% | 95.9% |
| #11423 | Human Boba | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.080Ξ | 0.091Ξ | +13.3% | 86.7% |
| #1365 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.082Ξ | 0.087Ξ | +6.1% | 93.9% |
| #5233 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.079Ξ | 0.087Ξ | +10.0% | 90.0% |
| #17503 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.081Ξ | 0.091Ξ | +11.8% | 88.2% |
| #5704 | Human Latte | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.088Ξ | 0.094Ξ | +7.3% | 92.7% |
| #7252 | Human Boba | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.089Ξ | 0.094Ξ | +5.2% | 94.9% |
| #16572 | Human Coffee | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.089Ξ | 0.098Ξ | +9.5% | 90.5% |
| #17779 | Human Mocha | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.091Ξ | 0.095Ξ | +4.4% | 95.6% |
| #9646 | Human Pumpkin Spice | floor · low | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.091Ξ | 0.087Ξ | -4.5% | 95.5% |
| #7003 | Human Boba | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.089Ξ | 0.091Ξ | +2.1% | 97.9% |
Model nakamigos-1793769671-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 11/4/2026. Method details on the methodology page.