Accuracy
How accurate is the Mutant Ape Yacht Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
92.7%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
89.7%
Within ±5%
37%
Within ±10%
63%
Within ±20%
91%
Bias
+2.1%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2249 | 93.1% | 66% | +2.4% |
| middle | 202 | 86.6% | 42% | -6.5% |
| grail | 8 | 14.5% | 13% | +144.5% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #10047 | middle · medium | Aug 3, 2026 | 3.790Ξ | 2.746Ξ | -27.6% | 72.5% |
| #13740 | floor · high | Aug 3, 2026 | 1.150Ξ | 1.306Ξ | +13.6% | 86.4% |
| #26901 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.438Ξ | 1.560Ξ | +8.5% | 91.5% |
| #4901 | middle · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 2.800Ξ | 2.023Ξ | -27.8% | 72.3% |
| #22584 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.330Ξ | 1.253Ξ | -5.8% | 94.2% |
| #19294 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.160Ξ | 1.199Ξ | +3.4% | 96.6% |
| #2167 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.197Ξ | 1.220Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #7788 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.390Ξ | 1.200Ξ | -13.7% | 86.3% |
| #2167 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.160Ξ | 1.285Ξ | +10.8% | 89.2% |
| #12978 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 1.170Ξ | 1.302Ξ | +11.3% | 88.7% |
| #18568 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.248Ξ | 1.226Ξ | -1.7% | 98.3% |
| #2056 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.160Ξ | 1.181Ξ | +1.8% | 98.2% |
| #4682 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.350Ξ | 1.415Ξ | +4.8% | 95.2% |
| #19190 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.150Ξ | 1.246Ξ | +8.4% | 91.7% |
| #23151 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.800Ξ | 1.474Ξ | -18.1% | 81.9% |
| #7461 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.490Ξ | 1.366Ξ | -8.3% | 91.7% |
| #3952 | floor · medium | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.380Ξ | 1.616Ξ | +17.1% | 82.9% |
| #1455 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.400Ξ | 1.586Ξ | +13.3% | 86.7% |
| #22584 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.228Ξ | 1.186Ξ | -3.4% | 96.6% |
| #17482 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.150Ξ | 1.178Ξ | +2.4% | 97.6% |
| #26066 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.189Ξ | 1.183Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #6602 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.164Ξ | 1.161Ξ | -0.3% | 99.7% |
| #27770 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.189Ξ | 1.164Ξ | -2.1% | 97.9% |
| #22862 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.189Ξ | 1.145Ξ | -3.7% | 96.3% |
| #3543 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.170Ξ | 1.200Ξ | +2.6% | 97.4% |
| #13010 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.189Ξ | 1.233Ξ | +3.7% | 96.3% |
| #28480 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.165Ξ | 1.289Ξ | +10.7% | 89.3% |
| #6603 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.129Ξ | 1.150Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #13362 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.130Ξ | 1.194Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #8022 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.136Ξ | 1.139Ξ | +0.3% | 99.7% |
| #689 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.230Ξ | 1.203Ξ | -2.2% | 97.8% |
| #2475 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.250Ξ | 1.557Ξ | +24.6% | 75.4% |
| #689 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.122Ξ | 1.190Ξ | +6.1% | 93.9% |
| #689 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.100Ξ | 1.300Ξ | +18.2% | 81.8% |
| #7461 | middle · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.330Ξ | 1.908Ξ | +43.5% | 56.5% |
| #5823 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.111Ξ | 1.178Ξ | +6.0% | 94.0% |
| #5823 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.100Ξ | 1.157Ξ | +5.2% | 94.8% |
| #24342 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.081Ξ | 1.148Ξ | +6.2% | 93.8% |
| #22584 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.100Ξ | 1.293Ξ | +17.6% | 82.5% |
| #5823 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 1.080Ξ | 1.267Ξ | +17.3% | 82.7% |
Model mutant-ape-yacht-club-1785734639-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.