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Mutant Ape Yacht Club

Mutant Ape Yacht Club

19,567 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Mutant Ape Yacht Club model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
93.0%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
89.9%
Within ±5%
38%
Within ±10%
66%
Within ±20%
92%
Bias
+4.1%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor238993.2%69%+3.9%
middle18287.5%41%-3.6%
grail1019.3%20%+172.8%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#7852middle · highSep 15, 20261.396Ξ1.423Ξ+1.9%98.1%
#1043floor · highSep 15, 20261.000Ξ1.071Ξ+7.1%92.9%
#11282floor · highSep 14, 20260.885Ξ1.041Ξ+17.6%82.4%
#334floor · mediumSep 14, 20260.885Ξ1.023Ξ+15.5%84.5%
#12948floor · highSep 14, 20260.770Ξ0.959Ξ+24.6%75.5%
#11064floor · highSep 14, 20260.886Ξ0.899Ξ+1.4%98.6%
#2258floor · highSep 14, 20260.940Ξ0.907Ξ-3.5%96.5%
#12492floor · highSep 13, 20260.983Ξ1.195Ξ+21.6%78.4%
#17262floor · highSep 13, 20260.858Ξ0.906Ξ+5.6%94.4%
#2258floor · highSep 13, 20260.840Ξ0.951Ξ+13.2%86.8%
#2523floor · highSep 13, 20260.846Ξ1.022Ξ+20.8%79.2%
#27498floor · highSep 13, 20260.849Ξ1.030Ξ+21.3%78.7%
#7700floor · highSep 13, 20260.870Ξ0.923Ξ+6.1%93.9%
#24734floor · highSep 13, 20260.862Ξ0.897Ξ+4.1%95.9%
#17472floor · highSep 13, 20260.880Ξ0.899Ξ+2.2%97.8%
#16560floor · highSep 13, 20260.909Ξ1.060Ξ+16.6%83.4%
#19536floor · highSep 13, 20260.860Ξ1.032Ξ+20.0%80.0%
#17472floor · highSep 13, 20260.860Ξ1.022Ξ+18.8%81.2%
#24734floor · highSep 13, 20260.853Ξ1.015Ξ+19.0%81.0%
#2226floor · highSep 13, 20260.900Ξ0.929Ξ+3.2%96.8%
#2928floor · highSep 13, 20260.890Ξ0.991Ξ+11.4%88.7%
#2167floor · highSep 12, 20260.950Ξ0.961Ξ+1.2%98.8%
#2226floor · highSep 12, 20260.870Ξ1.129Ξ+29.8%70.2%
#4058floor · highSep 12, 20260.871Ξ0.946Ξ+8.6%91.4%
#3119floor · highSep 12, 20260.947Ξ0.990Ξ+4.5%95.5%
#7546floor · highSep 12, 20260.870Ξ0.994Ξ+14.3%85.8%
#7700floor · highSep 12, 20260.900Ξ0.940Ξ+4.5%95.5%
#20566floor · highSep 12, 20260.897Ξ1.012Ξ+12.8%87.2%
#10450floor · highSep 12, 20260.900Ξ1.060Ξ+17.8%82.2%
#7700floor · highSep 12, 20260.886Ξ1.023Ξ+15.5%84.5%
#6232floor · highSep 12, 20260.918Ξ0.960Ξ+4.5%95.5%
#7760floor · highSep 12, 20260.934Ξ0.938Ξ+0.4%99.6%
#5337floor · highSep 12, 20260.918Ξ0.911Ξ-0.8%99.2%
#4504floor · highSep 12, 20260.915Ξ1.034Ξ+13.0%87.0%
#6232middle · highSep 11, 20260.890Ξ1.965Ξ+120.8%0.0%
#7443floor · highSep 11, 20261.396Ξ1.093Ξ-21.7%78.3%
#6473floor · highSep 11, 20260.928Ξ0.975Ξ+5.1%94.9%
#27112floor · highSep 11, 20260.990Ξ1.009Ξ+1.9%98.1%
#27112floor · highSep 11, 20260.940Ξ1.076Ξ+14.5%85.5%
#2151floor · mediumSep 11, 20261.410Ξ1.289Ξ-8.6%91.4%

Model mutant-ape-yacht-club-1788840011-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 9/8/2026. Method details on the methodology page.