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Mutant Ape Yacht Club

Mutant Ape Yacht Club

19,567 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Mutant Ape Yacht Club model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
94.7%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
91.5%
Within ±5%
48%
Within ±10%
75%
Within ±20%
93%
Bias
+1.6%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor256595.0%78%+1.1%
middle15786.9%38%-2.8%
grail1143.3%27%+161.2%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#15485floor · mediumNov 3, 20262.220Ξ1.228Ξ-44.7%55.3%
#4687floor · highNov 2, 20260.879Ξ0.893Ξ+1.6%98.4%
#1856floor · highNov 2, 20260.835Ξ0.928Ξ+11.1%88.9%
#1597floor · highNov 2, 20260.872Ξ0.915Ξ+4.9%95.1%
#25260floor · highNov 2, 20260.880Ξ0.900Ξ+2.3%97.7%
#25260floor · mediumNov 2, 20260.900Ξ0.884Ξ-1.8%98.2%
#14265floor · highNov 2, 20261.110Ξ1.213Ξ+9.3%90.7%
#512floor · highNov 2, 20260.883Ξ0.881Ξ-0.2%99.8%
#4687floor · highNov 2, 20260.900Ξ0.896Ξ-0.4%99.6%
#334floor · highNov 2, 20260.913Ξ0.890Ξ-2.5%97.5%
#1597floor · highNov 2, 20260.910Ξ0.925Ξ+1.7%98.4%
#1597floor · highNov 2, 20260.925Ξ0.848Ξ-8.3%91.7%
#334floor · highNov 2, 20260.881Ξ0.971Ξ+10.2%89.8%
#1416floor · highNov 2, 20261.020Ξ0.981Ξ-3.8%96.2%
#29250floor · highNov 2, 20260.907Ξ0.856Ξ-5.6%94.4%
#22060floor · highNov 2, 20260.906Ξ0.869Ξ-4.1%95.9%
#28517floor · highNov 2, 20261.120Ξ1.061Ξ-5.3%94.7%
#9659floor · mediumNov 2, 20260.891Ξ0.859Ξ-3.6%96.4%
#25178floor · highNov 2, 20261.010Ξ0.981Ξ-2.9%97.1%
#1499floor · highNov 1, 20260.881Ξ0.962Ξ+9.2%90.8%
#23380middle · highNov 1, 20261.454Ξ1.658Ξ+14.0%86.0%
#4311floor · highNov 1, 20260.926Ξ0.886Ξ-4.3%95.7%
#8385floor · highNov 1, 20260.930Ξ0.855Ξ-8.1%91.9%
#4311floor · highNov 1, 20260.886Ξ0.847Ξ-4.4%95.6%
#3813floor · highNov 1, 20260.912Ξ0.905Ξ-0.8%99.2%
#21325floor · highNov 1, 20261.230Ξ1.129Ξ-8.2%91.8%
#18170floor · highNov 1, 20260.887Ξ0.926Ξ+4.4%95.6%
#11236floor · highNov 1, 20260.907Ξ0.836Ξ-7.8%92.2%
#12109floor · highNov 1, 20261.600Ξ1.219Ξ-23.8%76.2%
#19479middle · highNov 1, 20261.790Ξ1.689Ξ-5.6%94.4%
#2069floor · mediumNov 1, 20260.887Ξ0.848Ξ-4.4%95.6%
#1251floor · highNov 1, 20261.050Ξ0.917Ξ-12.7%87.3%
#1416floor · highNov 1, 20260.965Ξ0.985Ξ+2.1%97.9%
#14425floor · highNov 1, 20261.770Ξ1.180Ξ-33.3%66.7%
#14424floor · highNov 1, 20261.120Ξ0.854Ξ-23.8%76.3%
#21325middle · highNov 1, 20261.120Ξ1.257Ξ+12.2%87.8%
#11380floor · highNov 1, 20260.930Ξ0.910Ξ-2.1%97.9%
#1499floor · highNov 1, 20260.950Ξ0.990Ξ+4.2%95.8%
#8402floor · highNov 1, 20260.889Ξ0.837Ξ-5.9%94.2%
#24floor · highNov 1, 20260.950Ξ0.840Ξ-11.6%88.4%

Model mutant-ape-yacht-club-1792559915-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 10/21/2026. Method details on the methodology page.