Accuracy
How accurate is the Lil Pudgys model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
97.0%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
94.9%
Within ±5%
66%
Within ±10%
88%
Within ±20%
97%
Bias
-2.3%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2103 | 97.0% | 89% | -2.4% |
| middle | 17 | 89.4% | 41% | +10.0% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #18957 | floor · high | Aug 25, 2026 | 0.464Ξ | 0.471Ξ | +1.5% | 98.5% |
| #7774 | floor · high | Aug 25, 2026 | 0.455Ξ | 0.425Ξ | -6.6% | 93.4% |
| #11101 | floor · high | Aug 25, 2026 | 0.455Ξ | 0.434Ξ | -4.6% | 95.4% |
| #18148 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.446Ξ | 0.456Ξ | +2.2% | 97.8% |
| #17199 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.449Ξ | 0.434Ξ | -3.3% | 96.7% |
| #17199 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.434Ξ | 0.424Ξ | -2.3% | 97.7% |
| #11223 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.437Ξ | 0.406Ξ | -7.1% | 92.9% |
| #18957 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.455Ξ | 0.407Ξ | -10.6% | 89.5% |
| #18148 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.434Ξ | 0.404Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #5010 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.450Ξ | 0.449Ξ | -0.2% | 99.8% |
| #7760 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.469Ξ | 0.396Ξ | -15.5% | 84.5% |
| #13584 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.469Ξ | 0.449Ξ | -4.2% | 95.8% |
| #13584 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.449Ξ | 0.409Ξ | -8.9% | 91.1% |
| #15094 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.460Ξ | 0.399Ξ | -13.3% | 86.7% |
| #11659 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.468Ξ | 0.418Ξ | -10.7% | 89.3% |
| #7641 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.460Ξ | 0.396Ξ | -13.9% | 86.1% |
| #5462 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.460Ξ | 0.405Ξ | -12.0% | 88.0% |
| #20414 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.457Ξ | 0.447Ξ | -2.2% | 97.8% |
| #16404 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.468Ξ | 0.409Ξ | -12.6% | 87.5% |
| #20414 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.447Ξ | 0.423Ξ | -5.4% | 94.6% |
| #20800 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.478Ξ | 0.395Ξ | -17.5% | 82.6% |
| #16751 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.443Ξ | 0.393Ξ | -11.3% | 88.7% |
| #13598 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.449Ξ | 0.404Ξ | -10.0% | 90.0% |
| #296 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.465Ξ | 0.433Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #4533 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.450Ξ | 0.394Ξ | -12.4% | 87.6% |
| #4967 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.451Ξ | 0.402Ξ | -10.9% | 89.1% |
| #16144 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.440Ξ | 0.430Ξ | -2.3% | 97.7% |
| #14602 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.435Ξ | 0.440Ξ | +1.2% | 98.9% |
| #10157 | floor · high | Aug 24, 2026 | 0.434Ξ | 0.398Ξ | -8.2% | 91.8% |
| #4814 | floor · high | Aug 23, 2026 | 0.479Ξ | 0.450Ξ | -6.0% | 94.0% |
| #8917 | floor · high | Aug 23, 2026 | 0.409Ξ | 0.418Ξ | +2.2% | 97.8% |
| #1252 | floor · high | Aug 23, 2026 | 0.498Ξ | 0.428Ξ | -14.1% | 85.9% |
| #14811 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.399Ξ | 0.392Ξ | -1.8% | 98.3% |
| #2901 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.990Ξ | 0.525Ξ | -47.0% | 53.0% |
| #3269 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.410Ξ | 0.401Ξ | -2.1% | 97.9% |
| #9557 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.401Ξ | 0.379Ξ | -5.5% | 94.5% |
| #2754 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.415Ξ | 0.413Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #10774 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.415Ξ | 0.411Ξ | -1.0% | 99.0% |
| #5891 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.411Ξ | 0.374Ξ | -9.0% | 91.0% |
| #14939 | floor · high | Aug 22, 2026 | 0.420Ξ | 0.394Ξ | -6.2% | 93.8% |
Model lil-pudgys-1787627615-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/25/2026. Method details on the methodology page.