Accuracy
How accurate is the Lil Pudgys model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
97.1%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
95.4%
Within ±5%
69%
Within ±10%
89%
Within ±20%
98%
Bias
-1.7%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2057 | 97.2% | 90% | -1.7% |
| middle | 14 | 90.1% | 50% | -13.5% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1543 | floor · high | Aug 3, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.394Ξ | +1.0% | 99.0% |
| #11676 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.393Ξ | 0.401Ξ | +2.0% | 98.0% |
| #4289 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.398Ξ | 0.385Ξ | -3.2% | 96.8% |
| #10995 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.384Ξ | -1.4% | 98.6% |
| #18011 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.373Ξ | -4.3% | 95.7% |
| #1330 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.376Ξ | -3.6% | 96.4% |
| #16568 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.385Ξ | 0.379Ξ | -1.6% | 98.4% |
| #14311 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.381Ξ | -2.3% | 97.7% |
| #11014 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.393Ξ | 0.380Ξ | -3.4% | 96.7% |
| #20182 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.398Ξ | 0.379Ξ | -4.8% | 95.2% |
| #1575 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.382Ξ | 0.382Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #593 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.393Ξ | 0.384Ξ | -2.4% | 97.6% |
| #2753 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.394Ξ | 0.389Ξ | -1.2% | 98.8% |
| #16861 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.395Ξ | 0.382Ξ | -3.3% | 96.8% |
| #16861 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.382Ξ | 0.383Ξ | +0.3% | 99.7% |
| #14780 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.384Ξ | 0.391Ξ | +1.8% | 98.2% |
| #6156 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.400Ξ | 0.382Ξ | -4.5% | 95.5% |
| #2753 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.389Ξ | 0.379Ξ | -2.6% | 97.4% |
| #18590 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.398Ξ | 0.374Ξ | -6.0% | 94.0% |
| #14135 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.374Ξ | -4.1% | 95.9% |
| #9937 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.385Ξ | 0.374Ξ | -2.8% | 97.2% |
| #16506 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.395Ξ | 0.384Ξ | -2.8% | 97.2% |
| #2166 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.380Ξ | 0.381Ξ | +0.4% | 99.6% |
| #14927 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.398Ξ | 0.380Ξ | -4.6% | 95.4% |
| #7146 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.500Ξ | 0.408Ξ | -18.4% | 81.6% |
| #4756 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.423Ξ | 0.378Ξ | -10.7% | 89.3% |
| #13689 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.375Ξ | 0.373Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #20241 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.419Ξ | 0.378Ξ | -9.8% | 90.2% |
| #10423 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.371Ξ | 0.377Ξ | +1.6% | 98.4% |
| #4756 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.372Ξ | 0.388Ξ | +4.3% | 95.7% |
| #6249 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.380Ξ | 0.374Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
| #6388 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.380Ξ | 0.374Ξ | -1.6% | 98.4% |
| #6388 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.363Ξ | 0.385Ξ | +6.1% | 93.9% |
| #9146 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.380Ξ | 0.382Ξ | +0.5% | 99.5% |
| #2948 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.369Ξ | 0.397Ξ | +7.6% | 92.4% |
| #9146 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.369Ξ | 0.391Ξ | +6.0% | 94.0% |
| #15685 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.370Ξ | 0.391Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #18381 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.392Ξ | 0.401Ξ | +2.3% | 97.7% |
| #16667 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.380Ξ | 0.385Ξ | +1.3% | 98.7% |
| #9519 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.382Ξ | 0.386Ξ | +1.1% | 99.0% |
Model lil-pudgys-1785726803-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.