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Lil Pudgys

Lil Pudgys

21,929 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Lil Pudgys model?

Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).

Median accuracy
94.2%
Mean accuracy
92.4%
Within ±5%
44%
Within ±10%
73%
Within ±20%
94%
Bias
+1.8%

Weekly median accuracy

Hold-out accuracy by week

Error distribution

Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)

Recent sales vs model

The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date

ItemDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#18291Jun 14, 20260.450Ξ0.452Ξ-0.5%99.5%
#18120Jun 13, 20260.495Ξ0.457Ξ+8.3%91.8%
#7429Jun 13, 20260.580Ξ0.504Ξ+15.1%84.9%
#21216Jun 13, 20260.455Ξ0.455Ξ-0.1%99.9%
#14654Jun 13, 20260.456Ξ0.456Ξ+0.1%99.9%
#16549Jun 13, 20260.457Ξ0.453Ξ+0.9%99.1%
#11117Jun 13, 20260.473Ξ0.463Ξ+2.2%97.8%
#7593Jun 13, 20260.509Ξ0.472Ξ+7.9%92.1%
#6401Jun 13, 20260.510Ξ0.458Ξ+11.3%88.7%
#21014Jun 13, 20260.473Ξ0.464Ξ+2.0%98.0%
#11536Jun 13, 20260.473Ξ0.467Ξ+1.3%98.7%
#1769Jun 13, 20260.468Ξ0.458Ξ+2.3%97.7%
#20800Jun 13, 20260.468Ξ0.454Ξ+3.1%96.9%
#18597Jun 13, 20260.570Ξ0.497Ξ+14.7%85.3%
#16847Jun 13, 20260.468Ξ0.459Ξ+2.0%98.0%
#3846Jun 13, 20260.455Ξ0.452Ξ+0.7%99.3%
#10465Jun 13, 20260.456Ξ0.449Ξ+1.6%98.4%
#1769Jun 13, 20260.452Ξ0.458Ξ-1.3%98.7%
#20800Jun 13, 20260.453Ξ0.454Ξ-0.2%99.8%
#19351Jun 13, 20260.456Ξ0.454Ξ+0.5%99.5%
#10319Jun 13, 20260.454Ξ0.470Ξ-3.4%96.6%
#7508Jun 12, 20260.459Ξ0.459Ξ-0.0%100.0%
#9420Jun 12, 20260.464Ξ0.465Ξ-0.3%99.7%
#8587Jun 12, 20260.463Ξ0.455Ξ+1.7%98.3%
#13795Jun 12, 20260.465Ξ0.453Ξ+2.7%97.3%
#11536Jun 12, 20260.465Ξ0.467Ξ-0.5%99.5%
#3496Jun 12, 20260.469Ξ0.453Ξ+3.7%96.3%
#13242Jun 12, 20260.478Ξ0.454Ξ+5.4%94.7%
#10968Jun 12, 20260.479Ξ0.456Ξ+4.9%95.1%
#17890Jun 12, 20260.469Ξ0.467Ξ+0.4%99.6%
#602Jun 12, 20260.470Ξ0.455Ξ+3.2%96.8%
#17890Jun 12, 20260.459Ξ0.467Ξ-1.6%98.4%
#10238Jun 12, 20260.466Ξ0.475Ξ-2.0%98.0%
#17575Jun 12, 20260.466Ξ0.459Ξ+1.4%98.6%
#10968Jun 12, 20260.459Ξ0.456Ξ+0.6%99.5%
#19359Jun 12, 20260.609Ξ0.494Ξ+23.3%76.7%
#602Jun 12, 20260.456Ξ0.455Ξ+0.1%99.9%
#14892Jun 12, 20260.460Ξ0.467Ξ-1.5%98.5%
#11117Jun 12, 20260.464Ξ0.463Ξ+0.2%99.8%
#11260Jun 12, 20260.481Ξ0.459Ξ+4.9%95.2%

Method details on the methodology page.