Accuracy
How accurate is the Good Vibes Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
90.0%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
87.4%
Within ±5%
21%
Within ±10%
50%
Within ±20%
85%
Bias
-2.9%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2146 | 90.3% | 52% | -2.6% |
| middle | 106 | 82.1% | 25% | -6.1% |
| grail | 14 | 71.8% | 29% | -26.4% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3613 | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.217Ξ | 0.252Ξ | +16.1% | 83.9% |
| #2866 | floor · medium | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.270Ξ | 0.202Ξ | -25.2% | 74.8% |
| #3349 | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.252Ξ | 0.192Ξ | -23.8% | 76.2% |
| #3613 | floor · high | Sep 19, 2026 | 0.252Ξ | 0.197Ξ | -21.8% | 78.2% |
| #6629 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.280Ξ | 0.192Ξ | -31.4% | 68.7% |
| #1069 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.238Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -22.8% | 77.2% |
| #4461 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.247Ξ | 0.210Ξ | -15.0% | 85.0% |
| #2776 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.247Ξ | 0.185Ξ | -25.1% | 74.9% |
| #2278 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.247Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -25.5% | 74.5% |
| #6019 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.247Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -25.7% | 74.3% |
| #4706 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.238Ξ | 0.187Ξ | -21.5% | 78.5% |
| #1431 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.235Ξ | 0.191Ξ | -18.8% | 81.2% |
| #2262 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.235Ξ | 0.188Ξ | -20.1% | 79.9% |
| #1357 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.238Ξ | 0.190Ξ | -20.3% | 79.7% |
| #4196 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.235Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -21.8% | 78.2% |
| #2701 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.235Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -21.8% | 78.2% |
| #4163 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.247Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -25.5% | 74.5% |
| #1462 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.247Ξ | 0.187Ξ | -24.3% | 75.7% |
| #2805 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.238Ξ | 0.191Ξ | -19.9% | 80.2% |
| #3033 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.255Ξ | 0.198Ξ | -22.4% | 77.7% |
| #1249 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.210Ξ | 0.272Ξ | +29.5% | 70.5% |
| #4188 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.238Ξ | 0.185Ξ | -22.2% | 77.9% |
| #2862 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.300Ξ | 0.209Ξ | -30.3% | 69.7% |
| #4790 | middle · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.450Ξ | 0.298Ξ | -33.8% | 66.2% |
| #5746 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.214Ξ | 0.182Ξ | -15.0% | 85.0% |
| #4416 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.214Ξ | 0.182Ξ | -15.0% | 85.0% |
| #6585 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.240Ξ | 0.182Ξ | -24.2% | 75.8% |
| #3063 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.280Ξ | 0.195Ξ | -30.3% | 69.7% |
| #2975 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 0.264Ξ | 0.201Ξ | -23.9% | 76.1% |
| #5458 | middle · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.470Ξ | 0.330Ξ | -29.8% | 70.2% |
| #5458 | floor · medium | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.330Ξ | 0.203Ξ | -38.5% | 61.5% |
| #6105 | middle · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.370Ξ | 0.300Ξ | -18.9% | 81.1% |
| #6105 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.300Ξ | 0.207Ξ | -31.0% | 69.0% |
| #100 | floor · medium | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.185Ξ | 0.221Ξ | +19.5% | 80.5% |
| #4222 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.215Ξ | 0.183Ξ | -14.9% | 85.1% |
| #6725 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.216Ξ | 0.184Ξ | -14.7% | 85.3% |
| #2547 | floor · medium | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.260Ξ | 0.199Ξ | -23.5% | 76.5% |
| #6185 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.217Ξ | 0.183Ξ | -15.5% | 84.5% |
| #4085 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.219Ξ | 0.183Ξ | -16.5% | 83.5% |
| #6725 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 0.182Ξ | 0.190Ξ | +4.4% | 95.6% |
Model good-vibes-club-1789793135-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 9/19/2026. Method details on the methodology page.