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Good Vibes Club

Good Vibes Club

6,968 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Good Vibes Club model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
89.1%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
86.1%
Within ±5%
18%
Within ±10%
45%
Within ±20%
80%
Bias
-1.8%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor210489.4%46%-1.3%
middle13182.1%26%-8.0%
grail1670.3%25%-17.4%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#771floor · highNov 4, 20260.182Ξ0.204Ξ+12.1%87.9%
#992floor · highNov 3, 20260.210Ξ0.227Ξ+8.1%91.9%
#4558floor · highNov 3, 20260.180Ξ0.246Ξ+36.7%63.3%
#4350floor · highNov 3, 20260.181Ξ0.214Ξ+18.2%81.8%
#765floor · highNov 3, 20260.189Ξ0.213Ξ+12.7%87.3%
#5455floor · highNov 3, 20260.190Ξ0.214Ξ+12.6%87.4%
#5467floor · highNov 3, 20260.439Ξ0.220Ξ-49.9%50.1%
#4177floor · highNov 3, 20260.190Ξ0.235Ξ+23.7%76.3%
#2528floor · highNov 3, 20260.192Ξ0.228Ξ+18.8%81.3%
#5570floor · highNov 3, 20260.192Ξ0.228Ξ+18.8%81.3%
#4898middle · highNov 3, 20260.550Ξ0.420Ξ-23.6%76.4%
#4024floor · highNov 3, 20260.194Ξ0.228Ξ+17.5%82.5%
#1831floor · highNov 3, 20260.201Ξ0.248Ξ+23.4%76.6%
#2443floor · highNov 3, 20260.202Ξ0.279Ξ+38.1%61.9%
#172floor · highNov 2, 20260.203Ξ0.263Ξ+29.6%70.4%
#6854floor · highNov 2, 20260.204Ξ0.206Ξ+1.0%99.0%
#2349floor · highNov 2, 20260.205Ξ0.279Ξ+36.1%63.9%
#6591floor · highNov 2, 20260.230Ξ0.225Ξ-2.2%97.8%
#1098floor · highNov 2, 20260.230Ξ0.248Ξ+7.8%92.2%
#6507floor · mediumNov 2, 20260.270Ξ0.272Ξ+0.8%99.2%
#4741floor · highNov 2, 20260.209Ξ0.216Ξ+3.4%96.7%
#5467floor · highNov 2, 20260.212Ξ0.251Ξ+18.4%81.6%
#2854floor · mediumNov 2, 20260.210Ξ0.219Ξ+4.3%95.7%
#3516floor · highNov 2, 20260.235Ξ0.280Ξ+19.2%80.9%
#6065floor · highNov 2, 20260.230Ξ0.217Ξ-5.6%94.4%
#6883floor · highNov 2, 20260.229Ξ0.205Ξ-10.5%89.5%
#2384floor · highNov 2, 20260.229Ξ0.205Ξ-10.5%89.5%
#342floor · highNov 2, 20260.229Ξ0.263Ξ+14.9%85.2%
#1785floor · mediumNov 2, 20260.206Ξ0.222Ξ+7.8%92.2%
#1412floor · mediumNov 2, 20260.206Ξ0.225Ξ+9.2%90.8%
#4678floor · highNov 2, 20260.349Ξ0.231Ξ-33.9%66.1%
#4287floor · highNov 2, 20260.207Ξ0.207Ξ0.0%100.0%
#6315floor · highNov 1, 20260.299Ξ0.223Ξ-25.4%74.6%
#2931floor · highNov 1, 20260.230Ξ0.215Ξ-6.5%93.5%
#2455floor · highOct 31, 20260.206Ξ0.264Ξ+28.2%71.8%
#6051floor · highOct 31, 20260.224Ξ0.210Ξ-6.3%93.8%
#6231floor · highOct 31, 20260.280Ξ0.253Ξ-9.6%90.4%
#5413floor · highOct 30, 20260.198Ξ0.209Ξ+5.6%94.4%
#4001floor · highOct 30, 20260.267Ξ0.222Ξ-16.8%83.2%
#2966floor · mediumOct 30, 20260.250Ξ0.229Ξ-8.4%91.6%

Model good-vibes-club-1793766251-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 11/4/2026. Method details on the methodology page.