Accuracy
How accurate is the Good Vibes Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
91.4%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
88.4%
Within ±5%
31%
Within ±10%
56%
Within ±20%
85%
Bias
+0.7%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 2019 | 91.7% | 57% | +1.2% |
| middle | 106 | 82.1% | 27% | -6.3% |
| grail | 14 | 71.7% | 36% | -15.4% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4148 | floor · medium | Aug 3, 2026 | 0.400Ξ | 0.404Ξ | +1.0% | 99.0% |
| #5408 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.359Ξ | 0.349Ξ | -2.9% | 97.1% |
| #5408 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.325Ξ | 0.370Ξ | +13.9% | 86.2% |
| #2697 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.379Ξ | -2.8% | 97.2% |
| #6179 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.385Ξ | 0.373Ξ | -3.1% | 96.9% |
| #1420 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.362Ξ | +1.8% | 98.2% |
| #4447 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.410Ξ | 0.390Ξ | -4.9% | 95.1% |
| #4802 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.360Ξ | 0.377Ξ | +4.7% | 95.3% |
| #1931 | floor · medium | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.370Ξ | 0.377Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #3186 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.333Ξ | 0.377Ξ | +13.2% | 86.8% |
| #2231 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.354Ξ | -0.4% | 99.6% |
| #2661 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.338Ξ | -4.9% | 95.1% |
| #3594 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.325Ξ | -8.5% | 91.5% |
| #4809 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.327Ξ | -8.0% | 92.0% |
| #71 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.350Ξ | 0.333Ξ | -5.0% | 95.0% |
| #2284 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.350Ξ | 0.342Ξ | -2.4% | 97.6% |
| #2849 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.350Ξ | 0.336Ξ | -4.1% | 95.9% |
| #6318 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.351Ξ | 0.331Ξ | -5.8% | 94.2% |
| #2904 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.490Ξ | 0.421Ξ | -14.1% | 85.9% |
| #2904 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.412Ξ | 0.434Ξ | +5.3% | 94.7% |
| #213 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.315Ξ | 0.372Ξ | +18.1% | 81.9% |
| #4140 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.463Ξ | 0.431Ξ | -6.8% | 93.2% |
| #6318 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.316Ξ | 0.377Ξ | +19.3% | 80.7% |
| #2284 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.317Ξ | 0.401Ξ | +26.5% | 73.5% |
| #3916 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.400Ξ | 0.392Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #2849 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.317Ξ | 0.382Ξ | +20.5% | 79.5% |
| #2369 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.353Ξ | 0.345Ξ | -2.4% | 97.6% |
| #3943 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.390Ξ | 0.393Ξ | +0.8% | 99.2% |
| #4934 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.397Ξ | 0.408Ξ | +2.8% | 97.2% |
| #3249 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.370Ξ | 0.376Ξ | +1.6% | 98.4% |
| #6262 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.359Ξ | 0.337Ξ | -6.1% | 93.9% |
| #6262 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.315Ξ | 0.382Ξ | +21.3% | 78.7% |
| #2369 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.316Ξ | 0.364Ξ | +15.2% | 84.8% |
| #5864 | floor · medium | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.690Ξ | 0.419Ξ | -39.3% | 60.7% |
| #1321 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.346Ξ | -2.7% | 97.3% |
| #2645 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.355Ξ | 0.350Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
| #6256 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.324Ξ | 0.374Ξ | +15.4% | 84.6% |
| #71 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.316Ξ | 0.396Ξ | +25.3% | 74.7% |
| #4809 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.317Ξ | 0.368Ξ | +16.1% | 83.9% |
| #4379 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.360Ξ | 0.374Ξ | +3.9% | 96.1% |
Model good-vibes-club-1785728015-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.