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Creepz by OVERLORD

Creepz by OVERLORD

11,112 items

OpenSea ↗
Accuracy

How accurate is the Creepz by OVERLORD model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)
90.8%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
86.8%
Within ±5%
28%
Within ±10%
53%
Within ±20%
80%
Bias
-2.4%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

TierSalesMedian accuracyWithin ±10%Bias
floor187791.1%55%-2.9%
middle7173.0%17%+12.0%
grail1775.4%35%-8.2%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

ItemTier / evidenceDateSaleModelErrorAccuracy
#28floor · highAug 24, 20260.190Ξ0.244Ξ+28.4%71.6%
#5461floor · highAug 24, 20260.192Ξ0.219Ξ+14.1%85.9%
#7810floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.196Ξ0.221Ξ+12.8%87.2%
#9426floor · highAug 24, 20260.200Ξ0.215Ξ+7.5%92.5%
#9105floor · highAug 24, 20260.195Ξ0.219Ξ+12.3%87.7%
#9383floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.201Ξ0.222Ξ+10.5%89.6%
#8959floor · highAug 24, 20260.201Ξ0.240Ξ+19.4%80.6%
#8750floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.202Ξ0.230Ξ+13.9%86.1%
#7976floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.203Ξ0.234Ξ+15.3%84.7%
#8841floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.202Ξ0.235Ξ+16.3%83.7%
#8799floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.240Ξ0.274Ξ+14.2%85.8%
#6582floor · highAug 24, 20260.220Ξ0.219Ξ-0.5%99.6%
#5950floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.242Ξ0.272Ξ+12.4%87.6%
#9079floor · highAug 24, 20260.225Ξ0.219Ξ-2.7%97.3%
#3166floor · highAug 24, 20260.320Ξ0.226Ξ-29.4%70.6%
#9368floor · highAug 24, 20260.220Ξ0.219Ξ-0.5%99.6%
#7394floor · highAug 24, 20260.281Ξ0.227Ξ-19.2%80.8%
#7394floor · highAug 24, 20260.220Ξ0.219Ξ-0.5%99.6%
#5654floor · highAug 24, 20260.213Ξ0.257Ξ+20.7%79.3%
#4237floor · highAug 24, 20260.213Ξ0.254Ξ+19.3%80.8%
#4867floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.212Ξ0.248Ξ+17.0%83.0%
#6582floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.204Ξ0.235Ξ+15.2%84.8%
#3363floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.314Ξ0.308Ξ-1.9%98.1%
#9361floor · highAug 24, 20260.219Ξ0.245Ξ+11.9%88.1%
#9368floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.218Ξ0.261Ξ+19.7%80.3%
#9453floor · highAug 24, 20260.217Ξ0.268Ξ+23.5%76.5%
#8892floor · highAug 24, 20260.215Ξ0.261Ξ+21.4%78.6%
#9079floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.216Ξ0.252Ξ+16.7%83.3%
#7811floor · mediumAug 24, 20260.217Ξ0.261Ξ+20.3%79.7%
#8592floor · highAug 24, 20260.217Ξ0.266Ξ+22.6%77.4%
#7394floor · highAug 24, 20260.218Ξ0.269Ξ+23.4%76.6%
#9152floor · highAug 24, 20260.217Ξ0.275Ξ+26.7%73.3%
#8463floor · highAug 24, 20260.238Ξ0.251Ξ+5.3%94.7%
#9846floor · highAug 24, 20260.238Ξ0.248Ξ+4.4%95.6%
#3166floor · highAug 23, 20260.231Ξ0.293Ξ+26.8%73.2%
#871floor · highAug 23, 20260.296Ξ0.269Ξ-9.1%90.9%
#871floor · mediumAug 23, 20260.248Ξ0.300Ξ+21.0%79.0%
#8978floor · highAug 23, 20260.278Ξ0.249Ξ-10.4%89.6%
#7809floor · highAug 23, 20260.278Ξ0.249Ξ-10.4%89.6%
#8605floor · highAug 23, 20260.261Ξ0.259Ξ-0.8%99.2%

Model genesis-creepz-1787613443-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/24/2026. Method details on the methodology page.