CryptoPunks

9,994 items · type types

Accuracy

How accurate is the CryptoPunks model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)

94.1%

Mean accuracy (100−APE)

90.9%

Within ±5%

44%

Within ±10%

70%

Within ±20%

90%

Bias

+0.2%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

Tier	Sales	Median accuracy	Within ±10%	Bias
floor	1732	94.5%	73%	-0.2%
middle	100	75.8%	30%	+7.5%
grail	18	73.9%	17%	+2.5%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

Item	type	Tier / evidence	Date	Sale	Model	Error	Accuracy
#6648	Male	middle · high	Aug 3, 2026	42.00Ξ	59.84Ξ	+42.5%	57.5%
#8949	Male	floor · high	Jul 31, 2026	35.00Ξ	32.65Ξ	-6.7%	93.3%
#5327	Male	floor · high	Jul 28, 2026	35.40Ξ	34.11Ξ	-3.6%	96.4%
#5631	Male	floor · high	Jul 28, 2026	48.69Ξ	37.51Ξ	-23.0%	77.0%
#9945	Female	floor · insufficient	Jul 27, 2026	38.00Ξ	33.58Ξ	-11.6%	88.4%
#4325	Male	floor · high	Jul 25, 2026	38.49Ξ	33.81Ξ	-12.2%	87.8%
#5917	Female	floor · insufficient	Jul 25, 2026	31.20Ξ	30.50Ξ	-2.2%	97.8%
#3498	Female	floor · low	Jul 25, 2026	31.99Ξ	30.50Ξ	-4.7%	95.3%
#7323	Male	floor · high	Jul 23, 2026	32.90Ξ	31.18Ξ	-5.2%	94.8%
#4325	Male	floor · high	Jul 23, 2026	32.50Ξ	35.45Ξ	+9.1%	90.9%
#4710	Female	floor · low	Jul 22, 2026	36.25Ξ	32.74Ξ	-9.7%	90.3%
#1824	Male	floor · high	Jul 22, 2026	34.50Ξ	34.74Ξ	+0.7%	99.3%
#4256	Male	floor · high	Jul 21, 2026	33.40Ξ	35.64Ξ	+6.7%	93.3%
#270	Female	floor · low	Jul 21, 2026	31.99Ξ	31.03Ξ	-3.0%	97.0%
#2154	Female	floor · low	Jul 21, 2026	33.00Ξ	32.22Ξ	-2.4%	97.6%
#8992	Male	floor · high	Jul 19, 2026	30.60Ξ	33.06Ξ	+8.0%	92.0%
#7588	Male	floor · high	Jul 18, 2026	69.00Ξ	43.31Ξ	-37.2%	62.8%
#4822	Male	middle · high	Jul 16, 2026	67.50Ξ	58.55Ξ	-13.3%	86.7%
#4059	Male	floor · high	Jul 14, 2026	30.10Ξ	34.64Ξ	+15.1%	84.9%
#270	Female	floor · low	Jul 13, 2026	30.38Ξ	32.59Ξ	+7.3%	92.7%
#2957	Male	floor · high	Jul 12, 2026	34.87Ξ	34.30Ξ	-1.6%	98.4%
#7361	Male	floor · high	Jul 12, 2026	37.50Ξ	38.31Ξ	+2.2%	97.8%
#6603	Female	floor · low	Jul 12, 2026	32.47Ξ	32.04Ξ	-1.3%	98.7%
#4782	Female	floor · insufficient	Jul 11, 2026	32.00Ξ	33.04Ξ	+3.3%	96.8%
#1470	Female	floor · low	Jul 7, 2026	52.50Ξ	42.62Ξ	-18.8%	81.2%
#5168	Female	middle · low	Jul 6, 2026	39.99Ξ	66.74Ξ	+66.9%	33.1%
#3378	Male	floor · high	Jul 6, 2026	35.00Ξ	33.92Ξ	-3.1%	96.9%
#382	Female	middle · low	Jul 4, 2026	123.0Ξ	89.47Ξ	-27.3%	72.7%
#9710	Female	floor · low	Jul 4, 2026	32.48Ξ	31.92Ξ	-1.7%	98.3%
#1930	Female	floor · low	Jul 4, 2026	32.00Ξ	32.93Ξ	+2.9%	97.1%
#1607	Male	floor · high	Jul 4, 2026	34.60Ξ	34.32Ξ	-0.8%	99.2%
#8655	Male	floor · high	Jul 4, 2026	35.00Ξ	33.00Ξ	-5.7%	94.3%
#2957	Male	floor · high	Jul 3, 2026	33.25Ξ	33.51Ξ	+0.8%	99.2%
#4654	Female	floor · low	Jul 3, 2026	78.00Ξ	43.75Ξ	-43.9%	56.1%
#2833	Male	middle · high	Jul 3, 2026	76.00Ξ	61.16Ξ	-19.5%	80.5%
#6492	Male	floor · high	Jul 3, 2026	32.24Ξ	32.08Ξ	-0.5%	99.5%
#7138	Female	middle · low	Jul 3, 2026	63.33Ξ	66.23Ξ	+4.6%	95.4%
#7519	Male	middle · high	Jul 3, 2026	58.89Ξ	61.31Ξ	+4.1%	95.9%
#8276	Female	floor · low	Jul 3, 2026	36.44Ξ	38.02Ξ	+4.3%	95.7%
#3860	Male	floor · high	Jul 2, 2026	42.00Ξ	38.42Ξ	-8.5%	91.5%

Model cryptopunks-1785764387-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.