CryptoPunks

9,994 items · type types

Accuracy

How accurate is the CryptoPunks model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)

94.2%

Mean accuracy (100−APE)

91.2%

Within ±5%

44%

Within ±10%

72%

Within ±20%

91%

Bias

-2.1%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

Tier	Sales	Median accuracy	Within ±10%	Bias
floor	1752	94.5%	76%	-2.1%
middle	89	76.9%	21%	+1.3%
grail	20	75.4%	20%	-12.5%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

Item	type	Tier / evidence	Date	Sale	Model	Error	Accuracy
#9912	Female	floor · low	Sep 18, 2026	35.00Ξ	39.22Ξ	+12.1%	87.9%
#3637	Female	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	29.38Ξ	28.30Ξ	-3.7%	96.3%
#1607	Male	floor · high	Sep 17, 2026	33.50Ξ	29.69Ξ	-11.4%	88.6%
#1521	Male	floor · high	Sep 15, 2026	35.00Ξ	36.27Ξ	+3.6%	96.4%
#8557	Male	floor · high	Sep 11, 2026	32.33Ξ	32.68Ξ	+1.1%	98.9%
#2167	Male	floor · high	Sep 9, 2026	28.16Ξ	28.35Ξ	+0.7%	99.3%
#8450	Female	floor · low	Sep 7, 2026	29.90Ξ	28.52Ξ	-4.6%	95.4%
#1020	Male	floor · high	Sep 7, 2026	38.99Ξ	36.52Ξ	-6.3%	93.7%
#3797	Male	floor · high	Sep 5, 2026	30.50Ξ	33.38Ξ	+9.4%	90.6%
#2167	Male	floor · high	Sep 5, 2026	28.33Ξ	28.86Ξ	+1.9%	98.1%
#7366	Female	floor · low	Sep 5, 2026	28.42Ξ	32.12Ξ	+13.0%	87.0%
#4023	Male	floor · high	Sep 5, 2026	28.20Ξ	31.28Ξ	+10.9%	89.1%
#1549	Male	floor · high	Sep 4, 2026	80.50Ξ	41.68Ξ	-48.2%	51.8%
#8375	Male	floor · high	Sep 4, 2026	32.50Ξ	34.59Ξ	+6.4%	93.6%
#1895	Female	floor · low	Sep 3, 2026	30.50Ξ	33.57Ξ	+10.1%	89.9%
#4457	Male	floor · high	Sep 2, 2026	30.00Ξ	33.38Ξ	+11.3%	88.7%
#3498	Female	floor · low	Sep 1, 2026	34.30Ξ	31.50Ξ	-8.2%	91.8%
#7358	Male	floor · high	Sep 1, 2026	34.50Ξ	32.27Ξ	-6.5%	93.5%
#2687	Male	floor · high	Aug 31, 2026	34.99Ξ	35.02Ξ	+0.1%	99.9%
#8154	Female	floor · low	Aug 31, 2026	30.50Ξ	32.92Ξ	+7.9%	92.1%
#3218	Male	floor · high	Aug 29, 2026	32.40Ξ	32.62Ξ	+0.7%	99.3%
#9700	Male	floor · high	Aug 28, 2026	31.49Ξ	32.49Ξ	+3.2%	96.8%
#9700	Male	floor · high	Aug 28, 2026	32.49Ξ	32.07Ξ	-1.3%	98.7%
#2403	Female	floor · low	Aug 27, 2026	31.79Ξ	31.42Ξ	-1.2%	98.8%
#8607	Male	floor · high	Aug 26, 2026	32.99Ξ	32.14Ξ	-2.6%	97.4%
#8480	Male	floor · high	Aug 25, 2026	37.49Ξ	32.05Ξ	-14.5%	85.5%
#9799	Male	grail · high	Aug 24, 2026	117.0Ξ	112.5Ξ	-3.9%	96.2%
#6570	Female	floor · low	Aug 24, 2026	34.48Ξ	31.81Ξ	-7.8%	92.2%
#5541	Female	middle · low	Aug 23, 2026	50.50Ξ	66.31Ξ	+31.3%	68.7%
#3862	Male	floor · high	Aug 23, 2026	30.80Ξ	33.12Ξ	+7.5%	92.5%
#5151	Male	floor · high	Aug 21, 2026	38.50Ξ	37.32Ξ	-3.1%	96.9%
#9018	Male	floor · high	Aug 21, 2026	36.95Ξ	32.77Ξ	-11.3%	88.7%
#1326	Male	middle · high	Aug 21, 2026	51.00Ξ	50.07Ξ	-1.8%	98.2%
#4711	Female	floor · low	Aug 20, 2026	32.41Ξ	30.50Ξ	-5.9%	94.1%
#4164	Male	floor · high	Aug 20, 2026	35.60Ξ	33.11Ξ	-7.0%	93.0%
#9546	Female	floor · low	Aug 20, 2026	40.00Ξ	41.25Ξ	+3.1%	96.9%
#5917	Female	floor · low	Aug 19, 2026	31.45Ξ	30.88Ξ	-1.8%	98.2%
#1930	Female	floor · low	Aug 19, 2026	30.50Ξ	31.11Ξ	+2.0%	98.0%
#9335	Male	floor · high	Aug 19, 2026	33.50Ξ	32.48Ξ	-3.0%	97.0%
#3298	Male	middle · high	Aug 17, 2026	140.0Ξ	84.22Ξ	-39.8%	60.2%

Model cryptopunks-1789697843-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 9/18/2026. Method details on the methodology page.