Accuracy
How accurate is the CrypToadz model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
91.2%
Mean accuracy
87.3%
Within ±5%
31%
Within ±10%
56%
Within ±20%
80%
Bias
-1.2%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5674 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.298Ξ | 0.339Ξ | -12.1% | 87.9% |
| #694 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.304Ξ | 0.322Ξ | -5.6% | 94.4% |
| #3002 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.309Ξ | 0.310Ξ | -0.3% | 99.7% |
| #5406 | Jun 9, 2026 | 0.307Ξ | 0.342Ξ | -10.2% | 89.8% |
| #1553 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.349Ξ | 0.343Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #2102 | Jun 8, 2026 | 0.775Ξ | 0.589Ξ | +31.6% | 68.4% |
| #6722 | Jun 7, 2026 | 1.000Ξ | 0.549Ξ | +82.0% | 18.0% |
| #1236 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.690Ξ | 0.517Ξ | +33.6% | 66.4% |
| #3357 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.316Ξ | 0.319Ξ | -1.0% | 99.0% |
| #1332 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.325Ξ | 0.325Ξ | +0.0% | 100.0% |
| #2832 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.337Ξ | 0.331Ξ | +1.7% | 98.3% |
| #1415 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.305Ξ | 0.323Ξ | -5.6% | 94.4% |
| #914 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.299Ξ | 0.309Ξ | -3.3% | 96.7% |
| #1332 | Jun 6, 2026 | 0.306Ξ | 0.325Ξ | -5.7% | 94.3% |
| #914 | Jun 5, 2026 | 0.315Ξ | 0.309Ξ | +1.7% | 98.3% |
| #1332 | Jun 5, 2026 | 0.305Ξ | 0.325Ξ | -6.1% | 93.9% |
| #6212 | Jun 5, 2026 | 0.298Ξ | 0.349Ξ | -14.7% | 85.3% |
| #6936 | Jun 5, 2026 | 0.330Ξ | 0.347Ξ | -4.9% | 95.1% |
| #5448 | Jun 4, 2026 | 0.786Ξ | 0.731Ξ | +7.5% | 92.5% |
| #914 | Jun 4, 2026 | 0.306Ξ | 0.309Ξ | -1.1% | 98.9% |
| #1415 | Jun 4, 2026 | 0.310Ξ | 0.323Ξ | -3.9% | 96.1% |
| #1056 | Jun 2, 2026 | 0.345Ξ | 0.346Ξ | -0.4% | 99.6% |
| #23000000 | Jun 1, 2026 | 2.000Ξ | 1.364Ξ | +46.7% | 53.4% |
| #4405 | May 31, 2026 | 0.332Ξ | 0.348Ξ | -4.6% | 95.4% |
| #1728 | May 31, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.341Ξ | -6.1% | 93.9% |
| #5686 | May 30, 2026 | 0.309Ξ | 0.325Ξ | -4.9% | 95.1% |
| #2182 | May 30, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.337Ξ | -5.2% | 94.8% |
| #385 | May 29, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.356Ξ | -10.2% | 89.8% |
| #5531 | May 28, 2026 | 0.309Ξ | 0.337Ξ | -8.4% | 91.6% |
| #6945 | May 28, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.345Ξ | -7.2% | 92.8% |
| #6628 | May 28, 2026 | 0.320Ξ | 0.325Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
| #1332 | May 27, 2026 | 0.312Ξ | 0.326Ξ | -4.3% | 95.7% |
| #6959 | May 26, 2026 | 0.318Ξ | 0.336Ξ | -5.5% | 94.5% |
| #658 | May 26, 2026 | 0.389Ξ | 0.339Ξ | +14.9% | 85.1% |
| #4405 | May 26, 2026 | 0.329Ξ | 0.349Ξ | -5.7% | 94.3% |
| #1728 | May 26, 2026 | 0.328Ξ | 0.341Ξ | -3.9% | 96.1% |
| #5357 | May 26, 2026 | 0.334Ξ | 0.332Ξ | +0.6% | 99.4% |
| #1188 | May 25, 2026 | 0.360Ξ | 0.329Ξ | +9.3% | 90.7% |
| #4194 | May 25, 2026 | 0.360Ξ | 0.349Ξ | +3.2% | 96.8% |
| #6936 | May 25, 2026 | 0.340Ξ | 0.345Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
Method details on the methodology page.