Cool Cats

9,968 items · tier types

Accuracy

How accurate is the Cool Cats model?

Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.

Median accuracy (100−APE)

95.1%

Mean accuracy (100−APE)

92.7%

Within ±5%

51%

Within ±10%

78%

Within ±20%

94%

Bias

-0.7%

Accuracy by market tier

Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment

Tier	Sales	Median accuracy	Within ±10%	Bias
floor	1795	95.2%	79%	-1.0%
middle	25	71.4%	24%	+17.9%
grail	64	94.3%	69%	-0.1%

Weekly median accuracy

Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week

Error distribution

Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted

Scored hold-out sales

60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time

Item	tier	Tier / evidence	Date	Sale	Model	Error	Accuracy
#866	classy_1	floor · low	Sep 20, 2026	0.131Ξ	0.129Ξ	-1.3%	98.7%
#860	classy_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.134Ξ	0.138Ξ	+3.0%	97.0%
#867	classy_1	floor · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.128Ξ	0.127Ξ	-0.8%	99.2%
#870	wild_2	floor · high	Sep 19, 2026	0.128Ξ	0.134Ξ	+4.7%	95.3%
#866	classy_1	floor · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.129Ξ	0.125Ξ	-3.1%	96.9%
#873	wild_2	floor · high	Sep 19, 2026	0.126Ξ	0.135Ξ	+7.1%	92.9%
#872	classy_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.138Ξ	0.133Ξ	-3.6%	96.4%
#876	wild_1	floor · high	Sep 19, 2026	0.127Ξ	0.126Ξ	-0.8%	99.2%
#7429	cool_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.130Ξ	0.126Ξ	-3.1%	96.9%
#2177	exotic_2	grail · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.310Ξ	0.380Ξ	+22.6%	77.4%
#60	classy_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 19, 2026	0.134Ξ	0.147Ξ	+9.7%	90.3%
#2273	cool_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 18, 2026	0.131Ξ	0.124Ξ	-5.3%	94.7%
#4069	cool_1	floor · high	Sep 18, 2026	0.137Ξ	0.135Ξ	-1.5%	98.5%
#5508	classy_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 18, 2026	0.150Ξ	0.126Ξ	-16.0%	84.0%
#262	cool_1	floor · high	Sep 18, 2026	0.139Ξ	0.135Ξ	-2.9%	97.1%
#1003	wild_1	floor · high	Sep 18, 2026	0.131Ξ	0.130Ξ	-0.6%	99.4%
#3699	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 18, 2026	0.131Ξ	0.131Ξ	+0.2%	99.8%
#9791	wild_1	floor · high	Sep 18, 2026	0.133Ξ	0.122Ξ	-8.6%	91.5%
#8708	cool_1	floor · high	Sep 18, 2026	0.128Ξ	0.121Ξ	-5.6%	94.4%
#8737	wild_2	floor · high	Sep 18, 2026	0.136Ξ	0.125Ξ	-8.2%	91.8%
#7688	classy_1	floor · low	Sep 18, 2026	0.133Ξ	0.128Ξ	-4.0%	96.0%
#9191	classy_1	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.127Ξ	0.125Ξ	-1.6%	98.4%
#7688	classy_1	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.129Ξ	0.124Ξ	-3.9%	96.1%
#5469	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.128Ξ	0.124Ξ	-3.1%	96.9%
#1003	wild_1	floor · high	Sep 17, 2026	0.129Ξ	0.121Ξ	-6.2%	93.8%
#3699	cool_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 17, 2026	0.130Ξ	0.120Ξ	-7.7%	92.3%
#6323	cool_1	floor · high	Sep 17, 2026	0.138Ξ	0.117Ξ	-15.3%	84.8%
#2610	exotic_1	floor · insufficient	Sep 17, 2026	0.160Ξ	0.146Ξ	-8.8%	91.3%
#2240	classy_2	floor · insufficient	Sep 17, 2026	0.137Ξ	0.127Ξ	-7.3%	92.7%
#6512	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.135Ξ	0.117Ξ	-13.3%	86.7%
#1615	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.133Ξ	0.121Ξ	-9.0%	91.0%
#6173	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.135Ξ	0.120Ξ	-11.1%	88.9%
#8409	classy_1	floor · insufficient	Sep 17, 2026	0.138Ξ	0.122Ξ	-11.6%	88.4%
#6583	cool_1	floor · high	Sep 17, 2026	0.133Ξ	0.123Ξ	-7.8%	92.2%
#3870	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.128Ξ	0.120Ξ	-6.3%	93.8%
#3088	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.128Ξ	0.119Ξ	-7.1%	92.9%
#9962	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.130Ξ	0.117Ξ	-10.0%	90.0%
#5792	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.131Ξ	0.120Ξ	-8.2%	91.8%
#9010	cool_2	floor · low	Sep 17, 2026	0.125Ξ	0.118Ξ	-5.6%	94.4%
#6057	cool_1	floor · high	Sep 17, 2026	0.126Ξ	0.127Ξ	+1.2%	98.8%

Model cool-cats-1789867319-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 9/20/2026. Method details on the methodology page.