Accuracy
How accurate is the Cool Cats model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
95.2%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
92.6%
Within ±5%
52%
Within ±10%
77%
Within ±20%
94%
Bias
-2.4%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1769 | 95.3% | 77% | -2.5% |
| middle | 24 | 77.5% | 29% | +9.8% |
| grail | 55 | 94.3% | 71% | -2.4% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | tier | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5365 | cool_2 | floor · low | Aug 4, 2026 | 0.143Ξ | 0.146Ξ | +2.1% | 97.9% |
| #6864 | cool_2 | floor · low | Aug 4, 2026 | 0.142Ξ | 0.145Ξ | +2.1% | 97.9% |
| #2877 | cool_2 | floor · low | Aug 4, 2026 | 0.143Ξ | 0.145Ξ | +1.4% | 98.6% |
| #1887 | cool_2 | floor · low | Aug 3, 2026 | 0.149Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #7606 | classy_2 | grail · low | Aug 3, 2026 | 0.187Ξ | 0.163Ξ | -12.8% | 87.2% |
| #4608 | cool_1 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.147Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #2433 | wild_2 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.152Ξ | +4.8% | 95.2% |
| #7928 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.154Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -5.2% | 94.8% |
| #4647 | cool_1 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.153Ξ | 0.148Ξ | -3.3% | 96.7% |
| #3476 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.146Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #3223 | cool_2 | floor · low | Aug 1, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.145Ξ | -3.1% | 96.9% |
| #3735 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.146Ξ | +0.7% | 99.3% |
| #6175 | classy_2 | floor · low | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.200Ξ | 0.181Ξ | -9.5% | 90.5% |
| #6175 | classy_2 | floor · low | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.181Ξ | 0.165Ξ | -8.8% | 91.2% |
| #4608 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.146Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #3775 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.160Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -8.8% | 91.3% |
| #9475 | wild_1 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -2.5% | 97.6% |
| #8187 | cool_2 | floor · low | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.146Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #1707 | wild_2 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.163Ξ | +11.6% | 88.4% |
| #4223 | cool_2 | floor · low | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.153Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -4.4% | 95.6% |
| #8455 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.159Ξ | 0.148Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #9155 | wild_2 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.195Ξ | +33.6% | 66.4% |
| #3511 | classy_1 | floor · insufficient | Jul 30, 2026 | 0.158Ξ | 0.155Ξ | -1.9% | 98.1% |
| #5792 | cool_2 | floor · low | Jul 29, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.149Ξ | -4.5% | 95.5% |
| #9438 | wild_2 | floor · high | Jul 29, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.147Ξ | -5.7% | 94.3% |
| #3401 | cool_2 | floor · low | Jul 29, 2026 | 0.151Ξ | 0.144Ξ | -4.6% | 95.4% |
| #1202 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 29, 2026 | 0.151Ξ | 0.148Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #7038 | wild_1 | floor · high | Jul 29, 2026 | 0.153Ξ | 0.145Ξ | -5.1% | 94.9% |
| #71 | wild_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.151Ξ | 0.149Ξ | -1.7% | 98.4% |
| #5545 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.148Ξ | -1.3% | 98.7% |
| #9328 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.144Ξ | -3.8% | 96.2% |
| #2027 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.149Ξ | 0.146Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #5110 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.147Ξ | +0.7% | 99.3% |
| #9073 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.149Ξ | 0.144Ξ | -3.1% | 96.9% |
| #3421 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.148Ξ | 0.145Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #2721 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.147Ξ | 0.144Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #3401 | cool_2 | floor · low | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.143Ξ | 0.147Ξ | +2.8% | 97.2% |
| #3301 | cool_1 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.147Ξ | +1.4% | 98.6% |
| #8929 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.145Ξ | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| #1938 | cool_2 | floor · insufficient | Jul 28, 2026 | 0.198Ξ | 0.144Ξ | -27.3% | 72.7% |
Model cool-cats-1785836519-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/4/2026. Method details on the methodology page.