Accuracy
How accurate is the Cool Cats model?
Every estimate is benchmarked against real sales the model never trained on (a seeded 80/20 hold-out).
Median accuracy
93.3%
Mean accuracy
90.3%
Within ±5%
38%
Within ±10%
65%
Within ±20%
89%
Bias
-1.0%
Weekly median accuracy
Hold-out accuracy by week
Error distribution
Signed % error on recent sales (0 = perfect)
Recent sales vs model
The 60 most recent sales, each valued as of its sale date
| Item | tier | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5718 | exotic_1 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.215Ξ | 0.207Ξ | +4.1% | 95.9% |
| #71 | wild_1 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.146Ξ | 0.161Ξ | -9.5% | 90.5% |
| #6180 | classy_1 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.162Ξ | -3.7% | 96.3% |
| #5243 | cool_2 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -8.7% | 91.3% |
| #4542 | cool_2 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.147Ξ | 0.154Ξ | -4.8% | 95.2% |
| #6521 | cool_2 | Jun 16, 2026 | 0.148Ξ | 0.155Ξ | -4.8% | 95.2% |
| #6658 | cool_2 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.162Ξ | 0.164Ξ | -1.1% | 98.9% |
| #7081 | classy_1 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.200Ξ | 0.184Ξ | +8.6% | 91.4% |
| #6722 | wild_1 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.152Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
| #1628 | wild_1 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.151Ξ | 0.155Ξ | -2.7% | 97.3% |
| #5718 | exotic_1 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.215Ξ | 0.207Ξ | +4.1% | 95.9% |
| #8766 | cool_2 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.155Ξ | 0.152Ξ | +1.6% | 98.4% |
| #8512 | wild_1 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.161Ξ | -3.3% | 96.7% |
| #6521 | cool_2 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.153Ξ | 0.155Ξ | -1.7% | 98.3% |
| #6442 | wild_1 | Jun 15, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.153Ξ | -0.6% | 99.4% |
| #4542 | cool_2 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.153Ξ | 0.154Ξ | -1.1% | 98.9% |
| #2141 | wild_1 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.155Ξ | 0.164Ξ | -5.5% | 94.5% |
| #9361 | cool_2 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.151Ξ | 0.152Ξ | -0.9% | 99.1% |
| #8278 | cool_2 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.158Ξ | -1.2% | 98.8% |
| #8847 | cool_2 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.154Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
| #9456 | cool_2 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.152Ξ | +2.4% | 97.6% |
| #2141 | wild_1 | Jun 14, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.164Ξ | -7.2% | 92.8% |
| #9082 | cool_1 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.165Ξ | 0.166Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #4582 | wild_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.158Ξ | 0.164Ξ | -3.6% | 96.4% |
| #8512 | wild_1 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.161Ξ | -6.9% | 93.1% |
| #7615 | cool_1 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -4.4% | 95.6% |
| #7477 | wild_1 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.161Ξ | -9.7% | 90.3% |
| #9361 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.152Ξ | -4.8% | 95.2% |
| #7276 | wild_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.160Ξ | 0.162Ξ | -1.4% | 98.6% |
| #3393 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.149Ξ | 0.166Ξ | -10.4% | 89.6% |
| #9671 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.160Ξ | -6.2% | 93.8% |
| #2786 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -4.1% | 95.9% |
| #1309 | cool_1 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.153Ξ | 0.157Ξ | -2.3% | 97.7% |
| #5244 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #951 | wild_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.153Ξ | -1.9% | 98.1% |
| #9456 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.152Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #2786 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.152Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -4.1% | 95.9% |
| #1852 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.156Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -2.3% | 97.7% |
| #1852 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.159Ξ | -6.0% | 94.1% |
| #7449 | cool_2 | Jun 13, 2026 | 0.151Ξ | 0.166Ξ | -8.8% | 91.2% |
Method details on the methodology page.