Accuracy
How accurate is the Bored Ape Yacht Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
93.6%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
91.0%
Within ±5%
43%
Within ±10%
69%
Within ±20%
91%
Bias
-1.5%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1388 | 93.9% | 70% | -1.3% |
| middle | 18 | 70.8% | 6% | +0.3% |
| grail | 99 | 91.2% | 60% | -4.1% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6474 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 8.000Ξ | 7.177Ξ | -10.3% | 89.7% |
| #5769 | floor · high | Sep 18, 2026 | 6.800Ξ | 6.996Ξ | +2.9% | 97.1% |
| #5031 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 9.108Ξ | 8.995Ξ | -1.2% | 98.8% |
| #3428 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 6.720Ξ | 6.688Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #6818 | floor · high | Sep 17, 2026 | 6.969Ξ | 6.835Ξ | -1.9% | 98.1% |
| #6818 | floor · medium | Sep 17, 2026 | 6.820Ξ | 6.955Ξ | +2.0% | 98.0% |
| #522 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 6.810Ξ | 6.659Ξ | -2.2% | 97.8% |
| #5688 | floor · high | Sep 16, 2026 | 6.749Ξ | 6.675Ξ | -1.1% | 98.9% |
| #4434 | floor · medium | Sep 16, 2026 | 7.000Ξ | 7.456Ξ | +6.5% | 93.5% |
| #2543 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 6.650Ξ | 6.889Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #5695 | grail · medium | Sep 15, 2026 | 7.200Ξ | 6.998Ξ | -2.8% | 97.2% |
| #3922 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 7.000Ξ | 6.836Ξ | -2.3% | 97.7% |
| #522 | floor · high | Sep 15, 2026 | 6.520Ξ | 7.070Ξ | +8.4% | 91.6% |
| #5890 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.690Ξ | 7.178Ξ | +7.3% | 92.7% |
| #2668 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.900Ξ | 6.663Ξ | -3.4% | 96.6% |
| #3471 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.560Ξ | 7.080Ξ | +7.9% | 92.1% |
| #6785 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.850Ξ | 6.617Ξ | -3.4% | 96.6% |
| #1474 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.500Ξ | 6.684Ξ | +2.8% | 97.2% |
| #3861 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.500Ξ | 6.622Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #5167 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.570Ξ | 6.550Ξ | -0.3% | 99.7% |
| #3861 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.280Ξ | 7.172Ξ | +14.2% | 85.8% |
| #8432 | floor · high | Sep 14, 2026 | 6.310Ξ | 6.831Ξ | +8.3% | 91.7% |
| #2148 | floor · high | Sep 13, 2026 | 6.610Ξ | 6.840Ξ | +3.5% | 96.5% |
| #2502 | floor · high | Sep 13, 2026 | 6.700Ξ | 7.044Ξ | +5.1% | 94.9% |
| #6785 | middle · high | Sep 13, 2026 | 6.700Ξ | 13.50Ξ | +101.5% | 0.0% |
| #4543 | floor · high | Sep 12, 2026 | 7.400Ξ | 7.166Ξ | -3.2% | 96.8% |
| #4543 | floor · high | Sep 12, 2026 | 7.080Ξ | 7.033Ξ | -0.7% | 99.3% |
| #4543 | floor · high | Sep 12, 2026 | 6.860Ξ | 7.294Ξ | +6.3% | 93.7% |
| #5899 | floor · high | Sep 11, 2026 | 6.850Ξ | 7.099Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #9171 | floor · high | Sep 10, 2026 | 6.760Ξ | 6.702Ξ | -0.9% | 99.1% |
| #9171 | floor · medium | Sep 10, 2026 | 6.500Ξ | 6.963Ξ | +7.1% | 92.9% |
| #6474 | floor · high | Sep 10, 2026 | 7.450Ξ | 7.629Ξ | +2.4% | 97.6% |
| #8971 | floor · high | Sep 9, 2026 | 6.970Ξ | 6.950Ξ | -0.3% | 99.7% |
| #3519 | floor · high | Sep 9, 2026 | 6.660Ξ | 7.057Ξ | +6.0% | 94.0% |
| #9350 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 6.670Ξ | 6.909Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #2307 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 6.800Ξ | 7.267Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #5418 | floor · medium | Sep 8, 2026 | 42.00Ξ | 8.418Ξ | -80.0% | 20.0% |
| #6722 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 9.750Ξ | 7.531Ξ | -22.8% | 77.2% |
| #2668 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 6.860Ξ | 6.818Ξ | -0.6% | 99.4% |
| #6874 | floor · high | Sep 8, 2026 | 6.798Ξ | 7.253Ξ | +6.7% | 93.3% |
Model bored-ape-yacht-club-1787620907-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/25/2026. Method details on the methodology page.