Accuracy
How accurate is the Bored Ape Yacht Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
93.6%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
91.0%
Within ±5%
43%
Within ±10%
69%
Within ±20%
91%
Bias
-1.5%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1388 | 93.9% | 70% | -1.3% |
| middle | 18 | 70.8% | 6% | +0.3% |
| grail | 99 | 91.2% | 60% | -4.1% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #32 | floor · medium | Nov 6, 2026 | 12.50Ξ | 6.927Ξ | -44.6% | 55.4% |
| #3519 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.840Ξ | 6.005Ξ | +2.8% | 97.2% |
| #6437 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.798Ξ | 5.531Ξ | -4.6% | 95.4% |
| #7294 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 6.100Ξ | 6.125Ξ | +0.4% | 99.6% |
| #5207 | grail · medium | Nov 6, 2026 | 15.00Ξ | 7.555Ξ | -49.6% | 50.4% |
| #7120 | floor · medium | Nov 6, 2026 | 6.700Ξ | 7.083Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #6278 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.590Ξ | 6.163Ξ | +10.3% | 89.8% |
| #5624 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 6.200Ξ | 5.998Ξ | -3.3% | 96.7% |
| #7774 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.430Ξ | 5.805Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #2132 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.580Ξ | 5.694Ξ | +2.0% | 98.0% |
| #1163 | grail · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 6.518Ξ | +8.6% | 91.4% |
| #6772 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.560Ξ | 5.776Ξ | +3.9% | 96.1% |
| #6772 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.510Ξ | 6.185Ξ | +12.3% | 87.8% |
| #576 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.950Ξ | 5.764Ξ | -3.1% | 96.9% |
| #3048 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 11.00Ξ | 6.032Ξ | -45.2% | 54.8% |
| #9605 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 6.370Ξ | 6.086Ξ | -4.5% | 95.5% |
| #5624 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.850Ξ | 6.238Ξ | +6.6% | 93.4% |
| #2543 | floor · high | Nov 6, 2026 | 5.900Ξ | 6.236Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #9504 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 6.060Ξ | 6.522Ξ | +7.6% | 92.4% |
| #5812 | floor · medium | Nov 5, 2026 | 9.000Ξ | 8.065Ξ | -10.4% | 89.6% |
| #3404 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 6.274Ξ | +4.6% | 95.4% |
| #3442 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.930Ξ | 5.695Ξ | -4.0% | 96.0% |
| #9374 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.690Ξ | 6.516Ξ | +14.5% | 85.5% |
| #5502 | floor · medium | Nov 5, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 6.353Ξ | +5.9% | 94.1% |
| #112 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.548Ξ | 5.767Ξ | +4.0% | 96.1% |
| #576 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.550Ξ | 5.606Ξ | +1.0% | 99.0% |
| #576 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.350Ξ | 6.149Ξ | +14.9% | 85.1% |
| #5471 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.529Ξ | 5.667Ξ | +2.5% | 97.5% |
| #2760 | floor · high | Nov 5, 2026 | 5.837Ξ | 5.485Ξ | -6.0% | 94.0% |
| #5638 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 6.150Ξ | 6.544Ξ | +6.4% | 93.6% |
| #5471 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 5.400Ξ | 6.161Ξ | +14.1% | 85.9% |
| #1210 | grail · medium | Nov 4, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 6.388Ξ | +6.5% | 93.5% |
| #9605 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 6.407Ξ | +6.8% | 93.2% |
| #7294 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 6.428Ξ | +7.1% | 92.9% |
| #6437 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 5.410Ξ | 5.673Ξ | +4.9% | 95.1% |
| #5282 | floor · medium | Nov 4, 2026 | 5.550Ξ | 6.303Ξ | +13.6% | 86.4% |
| #2226 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 6.000Ξ | 5.995Ξ | -0.1% | 99.9% |
| #112 | floor · high | Nov 4, 2026 | 5.450Ξ | 6.589Ξ | +20.9% | 79.1% |
| #4478 | floor · high | Nov 3, 2026 | 5.588Ξ | 5.738Ξ | +2.7% | 97.3% |
| #6048 | floor · high | Nov 3, 2026 | 7.800Ξ | 7.075Ξ | -9.3% | 90.7% |
Model bored-ape-yacht-club-1787620907-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/25/2026. Method details on the methodology page.