Accuracy
How accurate is the Bored Ape Yacht Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
94.0%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
91.1%
Within ±5%
43%
Within ±10%
69%
Within ±20%
90%
Bias
-3.2%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1372 | 94.1% | 70% | -2.9% |
| middle | 16 | 72.4% | 6% | -6.1% |
| grail | 94 | 92.6% | 64% | -6.7% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8256 | floor · medium | Aug 3, 2026 | 9.910Ξ | 10.10Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #1464 | floor · high | Aug 3, 2026 | 7.810Ξ | 8.090Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #3490 | grail · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 8.460Ξ | 8.644Ξ | +2.2% | 97.8% |
| #2509 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 7.950Ξ | 8.189Ξ | +3.0% | 97.0% |
| #1291 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 8.390Ξ | 8.246Ξ | -1.7% | 98.3% |
| #1291 | floor · medium | Aug 2, 2026 | 8.070Ξ | 8.561Ξ | +6.1% | 93.9% |
| #6136 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 10.00Ξ | 9.428Ξ | -5.7% | 94.3% |
| #8638 | floor · high | Aug 2, 2026 | 8.990Ξ | 8.809Ξ | -2.0% | 98.0% |
| #8638 | floor · medium | Aug 2, 2026 | 8.440Ξ | 9.382Ξ | +11.2% | 88.8% |
| #1280 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 8.020Ξ | 8.639Ξ | +7.7% | 92.3% |
| #9760 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 8.320Ξ | 8.509Ξ | +2.3% | 97.7% |
| #6914 | floor · medium | Aug 1, 2026 | 8.990Ξ | 8.942Ξ | -0.5% | 99.5% |
| #8243 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 7.950Ξ | 8.322Ξ | +4.7% | 95.3% |
| #6398 | floor · high | Aug 1, 2026 | 8.350Ξ | 9.394Ξ | +12.5% | 87.5% |
| #4811 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 7.950Ξ | 8.444Ξ | +6.2% | 93.8% |
| #2812 | floor · high | Jul 31, 2026 | 8.000Ξ | 10.27Ξ | +28.3% | 71.7% |
| #8243 | floor · medium | Jul 30, 2026 | 8.190Ξ | 8.807Ξ | +7.5% | 92.5% |
| #1715 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 7.980Ξ | 8.796Ξ | +10.2% | 89.8% |
| #2509 | floor · high | Jul 30, 2026 | 8.150Ξ | 8.474Ξ | +4.0% | 96.0% |
| #9911 | floor · high | Jul 29, 2026 | 8.460Ξ | 8.412Ξ | -0.6% | 99.4% |
| #4785 | floor · high | Jul 29, 2026 | 8.500Ξ | 8.812Ξ | +3.7% | 96.3% |
| #9538 | floor · high | Jul 29, 2026 | 8.200Ξ | 8.765Ξ | +6.9% | 93.1% |
| #8279 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 8.210Ξ | 8.668Ξ | +5.6% | 94.4% |
| #8888 | floor · high | Jul 28, 2026 | 11.00Ξ | 9.210Ξ | -16.3% | 83.7% |
| #9911 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 8.060Ξ | 8.979Ξ | +11.4% | 88.6% |
| #5465 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 8.200Ξ | 8.494Ξ | +3.6% | 96.4% |
| #1464 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 8.200Ξ | 8.653Ξ | +5.5% | 94.5% |
| #6962 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 9.150Ξ | 9.406Ξ | +2.8% | 97.2% |
| #2666 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 9.450Ξ | 8.673Ξ | -8.2% | 91.8% |
| #759 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 8.500Ξ | 9.489Ξ | +11.6% | 88.4% |
| #3645 | floor · high | Jul 27, 2026 | 9.300Ξ | 9.480Ξ | +1.9% | 98.1% |
| #7946 | floor · high | Jul 26, 2026 | 9.990Ξ | 8.667Ξ | -13.2% | 86.8% |
| #1473 | floor · high | Jul 26, 2026 | 8.150Ξ | 8.668Ξ | +6.4% | 93.6% |
| #3870 | floor · high | Jul 26, 2026 | 11.05Ξ | 11.39Ξ | +3.1% | 96.9% |
| #4590 | grail · high | Jul 25, 2026 | 8.250Ξ | 8.985Ξ | +8.9% | 91.1% |
| #4431 | floor · high | Jul 25, 2026 | 8.250Ξ | 8.694Ξ | +5.4% | 94.6% |
| #7946 | floor · high | Jul 25, 2026 | 8.510Ξ | 9.064Ξ | +6.5% | 93.5% |
| #5493 | floor · high | Jul 25, 2026 | 8.440Ξ | 8.890Ξ | +5.3% | 94.7% |
| #5534 | floor · high | Jul 25, 2026 | 8.979Ξ | 8.992Ξ | +0.1% | 99.9% |
| #5534 | floor · high | Jul 25, 2026 | 8.605Ξ | 9.569Ξ | +11.2% | 88.8% |
Model bored-ape-yacht-club-1785733439-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 8/3/2026. Method details on the methodology page.