Accuracy
How accurate is the Bored Ape Kennel Club model?
Every score comes from the newest chronological hold-out; the target sale is excluded from training, comparables, and its causal floor proxy.
Median accuracy (100−APE)
92.6%
Mean accuracy (100−APE)
87.9%
Within ±5%
38%
Within ±10%
60%
Within ±20%
81%
Bias
-3.3%
Accuracy by market tier
Floor, middle-market, and grail sales are scored separately so aggregate accuracy cannot hide a weak segment
| Tier | Sales | Median accuracy | Within ±10% | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| floor | 1682 | 92.8% | 61% | -4.2% |
| middle | 56 | 76.9% | 34% | +21.2% |
| grail | 97 | 92.7% | 61% | -3.1% |
Weekly median accuracy
Chronological hold-out accuracy by sale week
Error distribution
Signed hold-out error; positive means over-predicted
Scored hold-out sales
60 out-of-sample predictions frozen at evaluation time
| Item | Tier / evidence | Date | Sale | Model | Error | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2048 | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.120Ξ | 0.145Ξ | +20.8% | 79.2% |
| #8622 | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.140Ξ | 0.130Ξ | -7.1% | 92.9% |
| #5146 | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.126Ξ | 0.124Ξ | -1.5% | 98.5% |
| #4718 | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.123Ξ | 0.130Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #7996 | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.123Ξ | 0.130Ξ | +5.7% | 94.3% |
| #8717 | floor · high | Oct 31, 2026 | 0.126Ξ | 0.121Ξ | -3.9% | 96.1% |
| #7953 | floor · high | Oct 30, 2026 | 0.123Ξ | 0.128Ξ | +4.1% | 95.9% |
| #2532 | floor · medium | Oct 30, 2026 | 0.219Ξ | 0.150Ξ | -31.5% | 68.5% |
| #922 | floor · high | Oct 30, 2026 | 0.186Ξ | 0.151Ξ | -18.8% | 81.2% |
| #7953 | floor · high | Oct 30, 2026 | 0.117Ξ | 0.154Ξ | +31.6% | 68.4% |
| #7428 | floor · high | Oct 30, 2026 | 0.190Ξ | 0.123Ξ | -35.3% | 64.7% |
| #8178 | floor · high | Oct 29, 2026 | 0.125Ξ | 0.128Ξ | +2.1% | 97.9% |
| #9034 | floor · high | Oct 29, 2026 | 0.119Ξ | 0.120Ξ | +0.8% | 99.2% |
| #618 | floor · high | Oct 28, 2026 | 0.188Ξ | 0.122Ξ | -35.1% | 64.9% |
| #5146 | floor · high | Oct 28, 2026 | 0.123Ξ | 0.119Ξ | -3.3% | 96.8% |
| #4740 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.131Ξ | 0.124Ξ | -5.3% | 94.7% |
| #26 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.131Ξ | 0.126Ξ | -3.7% | 96.3% |
| #4119 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.127Ξ | -15.3% | 84.7% |
| #9565 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.131Ξ | 0.126Ξ | -3.7% | 96.3% |
| #4119 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.124Ξ | 0.122Ξ | -1.6% | 98.4% |
| #26 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.119Ξ | 0.128Ξ | +7.6% | 92.4% |
| #4740 | floor · high | Oct 27, 2026 | 0.121Ξ | 0.115Ξ | -5.0% | 95.0% |
| #7151 | middle · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.124Ξ | 0.192Ξ | +54.8% | 45.2% |
| #4740 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.119Ξ | 0.151Ξ | +26.9% | 73.1% |
| #4466 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.120Ξ | 0.140Ξ | +16.7% | 83.3% |
| #948 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.135Ξ | -10.0% | 90.0% |
| #9592 | grail · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.124Ξ | 0.123Ξ | -0.8% | 99.2% |
| #2217 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.126Ξ | -13.1% | 86.9% |
| #2609 | floor · medium | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.121Ξ | -16.6% | 83.5% |
| #3121 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.145Ξ | 0.133Ξ | -8.3% | 91.7% |
| #6922 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.125Ξ | 0.122Ξ | -2.4% | 97.6% |
| #7996 | floor · high | Oct 26, 2026 | 0.128Ξ | 0.119Ξ | -7.0% | 93.0% |
| #922 | floor · high | Oct 25, 2026 | 0.126Ξ | 0.168Ξ | +33.3% | 66.7% |
| #8622 | floor · high | Oct 25, 2026 | 0.126Ξ | 0.127Ξ | +0.8% | 99.2% |
| #703 | floor · high | Oct 24, 2026 | 0.126Ξ | 0.114Ξ | -9.5% | 90.5% |
| #3027 | floor · high | Oct 24, 2026 | 0.127Ξ | 0.119Ξ | -6.3% | 93.7% |
| #2370 | floor · medium | Oct 23, 2026 | 0.150Ξ | 0.115Ξ | -23.3% | 76.7% |
| #3833 | floor · high | Oct 23, 2026 | 0.135Ξ | 0.116Ξ | -14.1% | 85.9% |
| #948 | floor · high | Oct 23, 2026 | 0.133Ξ | 0.125Ξ | -6.2% | 93.8% |
| #6265 | floor · high | Oct 23, 2026 | 0.135Ξ | 0.128Ξ | -5.0% | 95.0% |
Model bored-ape-kennel-club-1793422067-2026-08-03.2 · evaluated through 10/31/2026. Method details on the methodology page.